{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,3]],"date-time":"2026-08-03T22:13:06Z","timestamp":1785795186458,"version":"3.56.0"},"reference-count":43,"publisher":"American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene","issue":"3","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2020,9,2]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>The COVID-19 pandemic and public health \u201clockdown\u201d responses in sub-Saharan Africa, including Uganda, are now widely reported. Although the impact of COVID-19 on African populations has been relatively light, it is feared that redirecting focus and prioritization of health systems to fight COVID-19 may have an impact on access to non\u2013COVID-19 diseases. We applied age-based COVID-19 mortality data from China to the population structures of Uganda and non-African countries with previously established outbreaks, comparing theoretical mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost. We then predicted the impact of possible scenarios of the COVID-19 public health response on morbidity and mortality for HIV\/AIDS, malaria, and maternal health in Uganda. Based on population age structure alone, Uganda is predicted to have a relatively low COVID-19 burden compared with an equivalent transmission in comparison countries, with 12% of the mortality and 19% of the lost DALYs predicted for an equivalent transmission in Italy. By contrast, scenarios of the impact of the public health response on malaria and HIV\/AIDS predict additional disease burdens outweighing that predicted from extensive SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Emerging disease data from Uganda suggest that such deterioration may already be occurring. The results predict a relatively low COVID-19 impact on Uganda associated with its young population, with a high risk of negative impact on non\u2013COVID-19 disease burden from a prolonged lockdown response. This may reverse hard-won gains in addressing fundamental vulnerabilities in women and children\u2019s health, and underlines the importance of tailoring COVID-19 responses according to population structure and local disease vulnerabilities.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.20-0546","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,7,24]],"date-time":"2020-07-24T03:00:36Z","timestamp":1595559636000},"page":"1191-1197","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":88,"title":["Predicting the Impact of COVID-19 and the Potential Impact of the Public Health Response on Disease Burden in Uganda"],"prefix":"10.4269","volume":"103","author":[{"given":"David","family":"Bell","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"1Independent Consultant, Issaquah, Washington;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kristian Schultz","family":"Hansen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"2Department of Public Health, Centre for Health Economics and Policy, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Agnes N.","family":"Kiragga","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"3Infectious Diseases Institute, School of Medicine, College of Health Sciences, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Andrew","family":"Kambugu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"3Infectious Diseases Institute, School of Medicine, College of Health Sciences, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"John","family":"Kissa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"4Uganda Ministry of Health, Division of Health Information, Kampala, Uganda;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Anthony K.","family":"Mbonye","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"5School of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, Makerere University, 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