{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,31]],"date-time":"2025-10-31T14:04:49Z","timestamp":1761919489715},"reference-count":29,"publisher":"American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene","issue":"5","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2011,11,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>We developed a probability equation and a decision tree from 1,973 predominantly dengue serotype 1 hospitalized adult dengue patients in 2004 to predict progression to dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF), applied in our clinic since March 2007. The parameters predicting DHF were clinical bleeding, high serum urea, low serum protein, and low lymphocyte proportion. This study validated these in a predominantly dengue serotype 2 cohort in 2007. The 1,017 adult dengue patients admitted to Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore had a median age of 35 years. Of 933 patients without DHF on admission, 131 progressed to DHF. The probability equation predicted DHF with a sensitivity (Sn) of 94%, specificity (Sp) 17%, positive predictive value (PPV) 16%, and negative predictive value (NPV) 94%. The decision tree predicted DHF with a Sn of 99%, Sp 12%, PPV 16%, and NPV 99%. Both tools performed well despite a switch in predominant dengue serotypes.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2011.11-0149","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2011,11,2]],"date-time":"2011-11-02T21:52:54Z","timestamp":1320270774000},"page":"942-945","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":22,"title":["Validation of Probability Equation and Decision Tree in Predicting Subsequent Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Adult Dengue Inpatients in Singapore"],"prefix":"10.4269","volume":"85","author":[{"given":"Tun L.","family":"Thein","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Yee-Sin","family":"Leo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Vernon J.","family":"Lee","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Yan","family":"Sun","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"David C.","family":"Lye","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"2795","reference":[{"key":"R1","series-title":"J Trop Pediatr","first-page":"301","article-title":"Outbreak of dengue in Mumbai and predictive markers for dengue shock syndrome","volume":"50","author":"Shah","year":"2004"},{"key":"R2","series-title":"N Engl J Med","first-page":"877","article-title":"Comparison of three fluid solutions for resuscitation in dengue shock syndrome","volume":"353","author":"Wills","year":"2005"},{"key":"R3","series-title":"Am J Trop Med Hyg","first-page":"566","article-title":"Risk factors in dengue shock syndrome","volume":"56","author":"Thein","year":"1997"},{"key":"R4","series-title":"Am J Trop Med Hyg","first-page":"179","article-title":"Dengue hemorrhagic fever in Cuba, 1981: a retrospective seroepidemiologic study","volume":"42","author":"Guzman","year":"1990"},{"key":"R5","series-title":"Lancet","first-page":"1431","article-title":"Failure of secondary infection with American genotype dengue 2 to cause dengue haemorrhagic fever","volume":"354","author":"Watts","year":"1999"},{"key":"R6","series-title":"Am J Trop Med Hyg","first-page":"172","article-title":"A prospective study of dengue infections in Bangkok","volume":"38","author":"Burke","year":"1988"},{"key":"R7","series-title":"Int J Infect Dis","first-page":"118","article-title":"Effect of age on outcome of secondary dengue 2 infections","volume":"6","author":"Guzman","year":"2002"},{"key":"R8","series-title":"Int J Infect Dis","first-page":"231","article-title":"Effect of increasing age on the trend of dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever in Singapore","volume":"7","author":"Ooi","year":"2003"},{"key":"R9","series-title":"Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg","first-page":"239","article-title":"Dengue haemorrhagic fever in Cuba. II. Clinical investigations","volume":"78","author":"Guzman","year":"1984"},{"year":"2005","series-title":"Epidemiology News Bulletin","author":"Ministry of Health","key":"R10"},{"year":"2006","series-title":"Communicable Disease Surveillance in Singapore 2005","author":"Ministry of Health","key":"R11"},{"key":"R12","series-title":"Am J Trop Med Hyg","first-page":"435","article-title":"Comparison of clinical features and hematologic abnormalities between dengue fever and dengue hemorrhagic fever among children in the Philippines","volume":"73","author":"Carlos","year":"2005"},{"key":"R13","series-title":"J Infect Dis","first-page":"313","article-title":"Early clinical and laboratory indicators of acute dengue illness","volume":"176","author":"Kalayanarooj","year":"1997"},{"key":"R14","series-title":"J Microbiol Immunol Infect","first-page":"121","article-title":"Clinical characteristics of dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever in a medical center of southern Taiwan during the 2002 epidemic","volume":"39","author":"Lee","year":"2006"},{"key":"R15","series-title":"Southeast Asian J Trop Med Public Health","first-page":"696","article-title":"Predictive value of clinical and laboratory findings for early diagnosis of dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever","volume":"21","author":"Teeraratkul","year":"1990"},{"key":"R16","series-title":"J Clin Virol","first-page":"34","article-title":"Predictive value of simple clinical and laboratory variables for dengue hemorrhagic fever in adults","volume":"42","author":"Lee","year":"2008"},{"key":"R17","series-title":"Trop Med Int Health","first-page":"1154","article-title":"Decision tree algorithm in deciding hospitalization for adult patients with dengue hemorrhagic fever in Singapore","volume":"14","author":"Lee","year":"2009"},{"key":"R18","series-title":"Emerg Infect Dis","first-page":"847","article-title":"Dengue virus surveillance for early warning, Singapore","volume":"16","author":"Lee","year":"2010"},{"year":"1997","series-title":"Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever: Diagnosis, Treatment, Prevention and Control","author":"World Health Organization","key":"R19"},{"key":"R20","series-title":"Clin Infect Dis","first-page":"1127","article-title":"The comparative accuracy of 8 commercial rapid immunochromatographic assays for the diagnosis of acute dengue virus infection","volume":"42","author":"Blacksell","year":"2006"},{"key":"R21","series-title":"Clin Diagn Lab Immunol","first-page":"1150","article-title":"Use of recombinant envelope proteins for serological diagnosis of dengue virus infection in an immunochromatographic assay","volume":"8","author":"Cuzzubbo","year":"2001"},{"key":"R22","series-title":"Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg","first-page":"142","article-title":"The performance of RT-PCR compared with a rapid serological assay for acute dengue fever in a diagnostic laboratory","volume":"100","author":"Barkham","year":"2006"},{"year":"2009","series-title":"Dengue: guidelines for diagnosis, treatment, prevention and control","author":"World Health Organization","key":"R23"},{"key":"R24","series-title":"J Gen Virol","first-page":"707","article-title":"Evolution, dispersal and replacement of American genotype dengue type 2 viruses in India (1956\u20132005): selection pressure and molecular clock analyses","volume":"91","author":"Kumar","year":"2010"},{"key":"R25","series-title":"Am J Trop Med Hyg","first-page":"796","article-title":"Molecular epidemiology of dengue 2 viruses in the Philippines: genotype shift and local evolution","volume":"73","author":"Salda","year":"2005"},{"key":"R26","series-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis","first-page":"e757","article-title":"Emergence of the Asian 1 genotype of dengue virus serotype 2 in Viet Nam: in vivo fitness advantage and lineage replacement in South-East Asia","volume":"4","author":"Vu","year":"2010"},{"key":"R27","series-title":"J Virol","first-page":"8638","article-title":"Humanized mice show clinical signs of dengue fever according to infecting virus genotype","volume":"83","author":"Mota","year":"2009"},{"key":"R28","series-title":"Am J Trop Med Hyg","first-page":"886","article-title":"Aedes aegypti vectorial capacity is determined by the infecting genotype of dengue virus","volume":"75","author":"Anderson","year":"2006"},{"key":"R29","series-title":"Ann Acad Med Singapore","first-page":"783","article-title":"Early dengue infection and outcome study (EDEN)\u2014study design and preliminary findings","volume":"35","author":"Low","year":"2006"}],"container-title":["The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.ajtmh.org\/view\/journals\/tpmd\/85\/5\/article-p942.xml","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.ajtmh.org\/downloadpdf\/journals\/tpmd\/85\/5\/article-p942.xml","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.ajtmh.org\/downloadpdf\/journals\/tpmd\/85\/5\/article-p942.xml","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,7]],"date-time":"2024-08-07T19:36:06Z","timestamp":1723059366000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.ajtmh.org\/view\/journals\/tpmd\/85\/5\/article-p942.xml"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2011,11,1]]},"references-count":29,"journal-issue":{"issue":"5"},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.4269\/ajtmh.2011.11-0149","relation":{},"ISSN":["0002-9637","1476-1645"],"issn-type":[{"type":"print","value":"0002-9637"},{"type":"electronic","value":"1476-1645"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2011,11,1]]}}}