{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,28]],"date-time":"2026-02-28T05:18:06Z","timestamp":1772255886709,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":24,"publisher":"American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene","issue":"4","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,4]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT.<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    Guinea worm (GW) disease (or dracunculiasis) is currently transmitted among dogs in Chad, which presents risks for the human population. We studied how interventions implemented at different levels might reduce the spread of GW disease (geographically and over time) and what levels of interventions might accelerate elimination. We built a multiple-water-source agent-based simulation model to analyze the disease transmission among dogs in Chad, as well as in geographic district clusters, and validated it using local infection data. We considered two interventions: 1) tethering, where infected dogs are kept on a leash during periods of infectivity, and 2) Abate\n                    <jats:sup>\u00ae<\/jats:sup>\n                    , under which the water source is treated to reduce infectivity. Our results showed that elimination (0 dog infections) is most likely achieved within 5 years with extremely high levels of tethering (95%) and Abate (90%), when intervention levels are uniform across district clusters. We used an optimization model to determine an improved strategy, with intervention levels which minimize the number of dogs newly infected in the 6th year, under limitations on intervention levels across clusters; the number of dogs infected after 5 years of intervention could be reduced by approximately 220 dogs with an optimized strategy. Finally, we presented strategies that consider fairness based on intervention resource levels and outcomes. Increased tethering and Abate resources above historical levels are needed to achieve the target of GW disease elimination; optimization methods can inform how best to target limited resources and reach elimination faster.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.22-0654","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,9,5]],"date-time":"2023-09-05T14:23:42Z","timestamp":1693923822000},"page":"835-843","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":5,"title":["Evaluating the Effectiveness of Potential Interventions for Guinea Worm Disease in Dogs in Chad Using Simulations"],"prefix":"10.4269","volume":"109","author":[{"given":"Yifan","family":"Wang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia;"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Tyler","family":"Perini","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia;"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"P\u0131nar","family":"Keskinocak","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia;"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Hannah","family":"Smalley","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia;"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Julie","family":"Swann","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia;"},{"name":"North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina;"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Adam","family":"Weiss","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The Carter Center, Atlanta, Georgia"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"2795","reference":[{"key":"b1","year":"2023"},{"key":"b2","series-title":"Wkly Epidemiol Rec","first-page":"233","article-title":"Organisation mondiale de la Sant\u00e9","volume":"94","year":"2019"},{"key":"b3","series-title":"BMC Public Health","first-page":"778","article-title":"The impact of mass gatherings and holiday traveling on the course of an influenza pandemic: a computational model","volume":"10","author":"Shi","year":"2010"},{"key":"b4","series-title":"Epidemiol Infect","first-page":"1472","article-title":"Modelling seasonality and viral mutation to predict the course of an influenza pandemic","volume":"138","author":"Shi","year":"2010"},{"key":"b5","series-title":"BMC Public Health","first-page":"614","article-title":"The risk of HIV transmission at each step of the HIV care continuum among people who inject drugs: a modeling study","volume":"17","author":"Escudero","year":"2017"},{"key":"b6","series-title":"Malar J","first-page":"133","article-title":"Multi-year optimization of malaria intervention: a mathematical 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transmission","volume":"2018","author":"Losio","year":"2018"},{"key":"b17","series-title":"Am J Trop Med Hyg","first-page":"61","article-title":"The peculiar epidemiology of dracunculiasis in Chad","volume":"90","author":"Eberhard","year":"2014"},{"key":"b18","year":"2019"},{"key":"b19","series-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis","first-page":"e0008170","article-title":"Ecology of domestic dogs Canis familiaris as an emerging reservoir of Guinea worm Dracunculus medinensis infection","volume":"14","author":"McDonald","year":"2020"},{"key":"b20","author":"Wang","year":"2017"},{"key":"b21","series-title":"Adv Neural Inf Process Syst","first-page":"3123","article-title":"Constrained cross-entropy method for safe reinforcement learning","volume":"66","author":"Wen","year":"2018"},{"key":"b22","year":"2022"},{"key":"b23","series-title":"MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep","first-page":"1496","article-title":"Progress toward global eradication of dracunculiasis \u2013 worldwide, January 2021\u2013June 2022","volume":"71","author":"Hopkins","year":"2022"},{"key":"b24","series-title":"Curr Biol","first-page":"R170","article-title":"Infectious disease: dog diets may drive transmission cycles in human Guinea worm disease","volume":"32","author":"Richards","year":"2022"}],"container-title":["The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.ajtmh.org\/view\/journals\/tpmd\/109\/4\/article-p835.xml","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.ajtmh.org\/view\/journals\/tpmd\/109\/4\/article-p835.xml","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.ajtmh.org\/view\/journals\/tpmd\/109\/4\/article-p835.xml","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,4]],"date-time":"2023-10-04T08:34:19Z","timestamp":1696408459000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.ajtmh.org\/view\/journals\/tpmd\/109\/4\/article-p835.xml"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,4]]},"references-count":24,"journal-issue":{"issue":"4"},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.4269\/ajtmh.22-0654","relation":{"has-preprint":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1101\/2023.05.22.23290350","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["0002-9637","1476-1645"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0002-9637","type":"print"},{"value":"1476-1645","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,4]]}}}