{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,10]],"date-time":"2026-09-10T04:57:18Z","timestamp":1789016238383,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":50,"publisher":"American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene","issue":"4","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,2]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT.<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>The identification of factors that influence the distribution of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is key for future surveillance and control. This study sought to understand how environmental and climate variables can interfere with VL expansion in the Doce River basin located in Brazil. This ecological study explored the influence of anthropogenic, environmental, and climatic factors on VL expansion. Ecological niche modeling was used to assess the current situation and predict the future spread of the disease. The study used 855 human cases of VL recorded in the Doce River basin from 2001-2018 and analyzed them within the context of climatic and environmental variables. To model the current and future distributions, MaxEnt with the <jats:italic>kuenm<\/jats:italic> R package was used. To model the future projections, the global climate model of the National Centre for Meteorological Research (CNRM-CM6-1) was used as well as two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP370 and SSP585) for 2021\u20132040 and 2061\u20132080. Variables that contributed to the VL distribution were the human footprint index (62.6%), isothermality (28.1%), precipitation during the wettest month (6.4%), and temperature during the hottest month (3.8%). Future climate change scenarios showed areas suitable for the disease increasing over time (by about 7% between 2021 and 2041 and about 12% between 2061 and 2080) and the maintenance of the disease in places already considered endemic. Our results demonstrate the importance of anthropic and climatic factors in VL expansion. We hope that these results will contribute to boosting surveillance and vector control programs along the Doce River basin.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.24-0442","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,1]],"date-time":"2025-01-01T14:50:05Z","timestamp":1735743005000},"page":"740-748","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["The Human Footprint and Climate Change Shape Current and Future Scenarios of Visceral Leishmaniasis Distribution in Doce River Basin in Brazil"],"prefix":"10.4269","volume":"112","author":[{"given":"Josefa Clara Lafuente","family":"Monteiro","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Graduate Program in Biological Sciences, Center for Research in Biological Sciences, Federal University of Ouro Preto, Ouro Preto, Brazil;"},{"name":"Laboratory of Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases, Department of Clinical Analysis, School of Pharmacy, Federal University of Ouro Preto, Ouro Preto, Brazil;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"S\u00e9rvio Pontes","family":"Ribeiro","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Graduate Program in Biological Sciences, Center for Research in Biological Sciences, Federal University of Ouro Preto, Ouro Preto, Brazil;"},{"name":"Laboratory of Ecology of Diseases & Forests, Center for Research in Biological Sciences, Institute of Exact and Biological Sciences, Federal University of Ouro Preto, Ouro Preto, Brazil;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Rafael","family":"Vieira Duarte","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Graduate Program in Biological Sciences, Center for Research in Biological Sciences, Federal University of Ouro Preto, Ouro Preto, Brazil;"},{"name":"Laboratory of Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases, Department of Clinical Analysis, School of Pharmacy, Federal University of Ouro Preto, Ouro Preto, Brazil;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Andr\u00e9s","family":"Lira-Noriega","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Consejo Nacional de Humanidades, Ciencias y Tecnolog\u00edas; Red de Estudios Moleculares Avanzados, Instituto de Ecolog\u00eda, AC, Xalapa, Mexico;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Octavio R.","family":"Rojas-Soto","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Red de Biolog\u00eda Evolutiva, Instituto de Ecolog\u00eda, AC, Xalapa, Mexico;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mari\u00e2ngela","family":"Carneiro","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Graduate Program in Biological Sciences, Center for Research in Biological Sciences, Federal University of Ouro Preto, Ouro Preto, Brazil;"},{"name":"Postgraduate Program in Parasitology, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Alexandre Barbosa","family":"Reis","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Graduate Program in Biological Sciences, Center for Research in Biological Sciences, Federal University of Ouro Preto, Ouro Preto, Brazil;"},{"name":"Laboratory of Immunopathology, Center for Research in Biological Sciences, Institute of Biological Sciences, Federal University of Ouro Preto, Ouro Preto, Brazil;"},{"name":"National Institute of Science and Technology in Tropical Diseases, INCT-DT, Salvador, Brazil"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Wendel","family":"Coura-Vital","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Graduate Program in Biological Sciences, Center for Research in Biological Sciences, Federal University of Ouro Preto, Ouro Preto, Brazil;"},{"name":"Laboratory of Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases, Department of Clinical Analysis, School of Pharmacy, Federal University of Ouro Preto, Ouro Preto, Brazil;"},{"name":"National Institute of Science and Technology in Tropical Diseases, INCT-DT, Salvador, Brazil"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"2795","reference":[{"key":"b1","series-title":"Climate Change 2014\u2014Mitigation of Climate Change","year":"2014"},{"key":"b2","series-title":"Nat Rev Microbiol","first-page":"193","article-title":"Infectious disease in an era of global change","volume":"20","author":"Baker","year":"2022"},{"key":"b3","series-title":"Global Report on Neglected Tropical Diseases 2023","year":"2023"},{"key":"b4","series-title":"Leishmanioses: Informe epidemiol\u00f3gico das Am\u00e9ricas. N\u00ba 11 (Dezembro de 2022)","year":"2022"},{"key":"b5","series-title":"Comp Immunol Microbiol Infect Dis","first-page":"305","article-title":"Leishmaniasis: Current situation and new perspectives","volume":"27","author":"Desjeux","year":"2004"},{"key":"b6","series-title":"Neotrop Entomol","first-page":"161","article-title":"Lutzomyia longipalpis, gone with the wind and other variables","volume":"50","author":"Salomon","year":"2021"},{"key":"b7","series-title":"Asian Pac J Trop Med","first-page":"925","article-title":"Worldwide risk factors in leishmaniasis","volume":"9","author":"Oryan","year":"2016"},{"key":"b8","series-title":"Revista Instituto Medicina Tropical S\u00e3o Paulo","first-page":"197","article-title":"Calazar na zona do Rio Doce\u2014Minas Gerais. Resultados de medidas profilaticas","volume":"22","author":"Magalh\u00e3es","year":"1980"},{"key":"b9","series-title":"ArcGIS Desktop: Version 10.3","year":"2011"},{"key":"b10","series-title":"Ecography","first-page":"541","article-title":"spThin: An R package for spatial thinning of species occurrence records for use in ecological niche models","volume":"38","author":"Aiello\u2010Lammens","year":"2015"},{"key":"b11","series-title":"PeerJ","first-page":"e6281","article-title":"Kuenm: An R package for detailed development of ecological niche models using Maxent","volume":"7","author":"Cobos","year":"2019"},{"key":"b12","series-title":"Austral Ecology","first-page":"1506","article-title":"Checking bioclimatic variables that combine temperature and precipitation data before their use in species distribution models","volume":"47","author":"Booth","year":"2022"},{"key":"b13","series-title":"Geospat Health","first-page":"221","article-title":"Potential for spread of the white-nose fungus (Pseudogymnoascus destructans) in the Americas: Use of MaxEnt and NicheA to assure strict model transference","volume":"9","author":"Escobar","year":"2014"},{"key":"b14","series-title":"Ecography","first-page":"161","article-title":"Modeling of species distributions with MaxEnt: New extensions and a comprehensive evaluation","volume":"31","author":"Phillips","year":"2008"},{"key":"b15","series-title":"Tutorial de Modelos de Distribui\u00e7\u00e3o de Esp\u00e9cies: Guia Pr\u00e1tico Usando o MaxEnt e o ArcGIS 10","author":"Dalapicolla","year":"2016"},{"key":"b16","series-title":"Ecography","first-page":"385","article-title":"Selecting thresholds of occurrence in the prediction of species distributions","volume":"28","author":"Liu","year":"2005"},{"key":"b17","series-title":"Int J Climatol","first-page":"4302","article-title":"WorldClim 2: New 1\u2010km spatial resolution climate surfaces for global land areas","volume":"37","author":"Fick","year":"2017"},{"key":"b18","series-title":"J Climate","first-page":"6561","article-title":"Storylines of atmospheric circulation change for European regional climate impact assessment","volume":"30","author":"Zappa","year":"2017"},{"key":"b19","series-title":"Methods Ecol Evol","first-page":"1199","article-title":"ntbox: An R package with graphical user interface for modelling and evaluating multidimensional ecological niches","volume":"11","author":"Osorio\u2010Olvera","year":"2020"},{"key":"b20","series-title":"Ecol Model","first-page":"10","article-title":"Constraints on interpretation of ecological niche models by limited environmental ranges on calibration areas","volume":"263","author":"Owens","year":"2013"},{"key":"b21","series-title":"Natureza Conserva\u00e7\u00e3o","first-page":"35","article-title":"Deep into the mud: Ecological and socio-economic impacts of the dam breach in Mariana, Brazil","volume":"14","author":"Fernandes","year":"2016"},{"key":"b22","series-title":"The Global Health Observatory Data. Leishmaniasis","year":"2023"},{"key":"b23","series-title":"Global Leishmaniasis Surveillance: 2021, Assessing the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic","year":"2021"},{"key":"b24","series-title":"J Trop Med","first-page":"858657","article-title":"Studies on the feeding habits of Lutzomyia (Lutzomyia) longipalpis (Lutz & Neiva, 1912) (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae) populations from endemic areas of American visceral leishmaniasis in northeastern Brazil","volume":"2012","author":"Afonso","year":"2012"},{"key":"b25","series-title":"Mem Inst Oswaldo Cruz","first-page":"135","article-title":"Amazonian visceral leishmaniasis\u2014Distribution of the vector Lutzomyia longipalpis (Lutz & Neiva) in relation to the fox Cerdocyon thous (linn.) and the efficiency of this reservoir host as a source of infection","volume":"85","author":"Lainson","year":"1990"},{"key":"b26","series-title":"Emerg Infect Dis","first-page":"1480","article-title":"Role of the domestic chicken (Gallus gallus) in the epidemiology of urban visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil","volume":"8","author":"Alexander","year":"2002"},{"key":"b27","series-title":"Lancet","first-page":"1936","article-title":"Ecology of zoonoses: Natural and unnatural histories","volume":"380","author":"Karesh","year":"2012"},{"key":"b28","series-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci USA","first-page":"e2023540118","article-title":"Impacts of biodiversity and biodiversity loss on zoonotic diseases","volume":"118","author":"Keesing","year":"2021"},{"key":"b29","series-title":"Resour Conserv Recycl","first-page":"105071","article-title":"COVID-19 waste management: Effective and successful measures in Wuhan, China","volume":"163","author":"Singh","year":"2020"},{"key":"b30","series-title":"Front Public Health","first-page":"647754","article-title":"Epidemiology, biodiversity, and technological trajectories in the Brazilian Amazon: From malaria to COVID-19","volume":"9","author":"Code\u00e7o","year":"2021"},{"key":"b31","series-title":"Nat Commun","first-page":"12558","article-title":"Sixteen years of change in the global terrestrial human footprint and implications for biodiversity conservation","volume":"7","author":"Venter","year":"2016"},{"key":"b32","series-title":"Territ\u00f3rio, Mobilidade Populacional e Ambiente","first-page":"201","article-title":"Da explora\u00e7\u00e3o econ\u00f4mica da bacia hidrogr\u00e1fica do Rio Doce ao atual processo de degrada\u00e7\u00e3o de seus recursos naturais","author":"Hora","year":"2021"},{"key":"b33","series-title":"Trends Ecol Evol","first-page":"55","article-title":"Urbanization and disease emergence: Dynamics at the wildlife\u2013livestock\u2013human interface","volume":"32","author":"Hassell","year":"2017"},{"key":"b34","series-title":"Parasit Vectors","first-page":"503","article-title":"Dispersion of Lutzomyia longipalpis and expansion of visceral leishmaniasis in Sao Paulo state, Brazil: Identification of associated factors through survival analysis","volume":"11","author":"Oliveira","year":"2018"},{"key":"b35","series-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis","first-page":"e0007629","article-title":"Ecological niche modelling for predicting the risk of cutaneous leishmaniasis in the neotropical moist forest biome","volume":"13","author":"Chavy","year":"2019"},{"key":"b36","series-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis","first-page":"e0008691","article-title":"Spatial epidemiology of yellow fever: Identification of determinants of the 2016\u20132018 epidemics and at-risk areas in Brazil","volume":"14","author":"de Thoisy","year":"2020"},{"key":"b37","series-title":"J Med Entomol","first-page":"990","article-title":"Effect of abiotic factors on seasonal population dynamics of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Diptera: Psychodidae) in northeastern Brazil","volume":"43","author":"Ximenes","year":"2006"},{"key":"b38","series-title":"Rev Sa\u00fade P\u00fablica","first-page":"378","article-title":"Estudo de flebotom\u00edneos (Diptera: Psychodidae) em foco de leishmaniose visceral no Estado de Mato Grosso do Sul, Brasil","volume":"31","author":"Galati","year":"1997"},{"key":"b39","series-title":"Hygeia","first-page":"11","article-title":"Influ\u00eancia de vari\u00e1veis clim\u00e1ticas e ambientais na distribui\u00e7\u00e3o potencial do Lutzomyia longipalpis (Psychodidae: Phlebotominae) no estado de S\u00e3o Paulo, Brasil","volume":"15","author":"da Silva Fonseca","year":"2019"},{"key":"b40","series-title":"Journal of Global Health Economics and Policy","first-page":"1","article-title":"Influence of climatic variables on the number of cases of visceral leishmaniasis in an endemic urban area","volume":"2","author":"Duarte","year":"2022"},{"key":"b41","series-title":"Flebotom\u00edneos Brasil","first-page":"207","article-title":"Distribui\u00e7\u00e3o regional e habitats das esp\u00e9cies de flebotom\u00edneos do Brasil","author":"Marins de Aguiar","year":"2003"},{"key":"b42","series-title":"J Med Entomol","first-page":"1430","article-title":"Occurrence and probability maps of Lutzomyia longipalpis and Lutzomyia cruzi (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae) in Brazil","volume":"54","author":"Andrade-Filho","year":"2017"},{"key":"b43","series-title":"Revista Instituto Medicina Tropical S\u00e3o Paulo","first-page":"198","article-title":"Visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil: Geographical distribution and transmission","volume":"5","author":"Deane","year":"1963"},{"key":"b44","series-title":"Geospat Health","first-page":"1095","article-title":"Use of soil moisture active passive satellite data and WorldClim 2.0 data to predict the potential distribution of visceral leishmaniasis and its vector Lutzomyia longipalpis in Sao Paulo and Bahia states, Brazil","volume":"17","author":"Rodgers","year":"2022"},{"key":"b45","series-title":"Environ Monit Assess","first-page":"331","article-title":"Ecological niche models for sand fly species and predicted distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Diptera: Psychodidae) and visceral leishmaniasis in Bahia state, Brazil","volume":"191","author":"de Santana Martins Rodgers","year":"2019"},{"key":"b46","series-title":"Cien Saude Colet","first-page":"263","article-title":"The impact of climate change on leishmaniasis in Brazil","volume":"21","author":"Mendes","year":"2016"},{"key":"b47","series-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis","first-page":"e0005950","article-title":"Spatial and temporal trends of visceral leishmaniasis by mesoregion in a southeastern state of Brazil, 2002\u20132013","volume":"11","author":"Silva","year":"2017"},{"key":"b48","series-title":"Rev Soc Bras Med Trop","first-page":"136","article-title":"Phlebotomine sandflies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Governador Valadares, a transmission area for American tegumentary leishmaniasis in state of Minas Gerais, Brazil","volume":"44","author":"Barata","year":"2011"},{"key":"b49","series-title":"Prev Vet Med","first-page":"1","article-title":"Risk profile for Leishmania infection in dogs coming from an area of visceral leishmaniasis reemergence","volume":"150","author":"Leal","year":"2018"},{"key":"b50","series-title":"Rev Soc Bras Med Trop","first-page":"e20190216","article-title":"Epidemiological aspects and spatial distribution of visceral leishmaniasis in Governador Valadares, Brazil, between 2008 and 2012","volume":"53","author":"Pinheiro","year":"2019"}],"container-title":["The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.ajtmh.org\/view\/journals\/tpmd\/112\/4\/article-p740.xml","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.ajtmh.org\/downloadpdf\/journals\/tpmd\/112\/4\/article-p740.xml","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.ajtmh.org\/downloadpdf\/journals\/tpmd\/112\/4\/article-p740.xml","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,2]],"date-time":"2025-04-02T13:44:19Z","timestamp":1743601459000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.ajtmh.org\/view\/journals\/tpmd\/112\/4\/article-p740.xml"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,2]]},"references-count":50,"journal-issue":{"issue":"4"},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.4269\/ajtmh.24-0442","relation":{},"ISSN":["0002-9637","1476-1645"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0002-9637","type":"print"},{"value":"1476-1645","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,2]]}}}