{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,1]],"date-time":"2026-04-01T21:31:53Z","timestamp":1775079113777,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":132,"publisher":"American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,1]],"date-time":"2026-04-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1775001600000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT.<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    The Mandoto District in the central highlands of Madagascar experiences year-round transmission of\n                    <jats:italic>Plasmodium vivax<\/jats:italic>\n                    (\n                    <jats:italic>P. vivax<\/jats:italic>\n                    ) and\n                    <jats:italic>Plasmodium falciparum<\/jats:italic>\n                    (\n                    <jats:italic>P. falciparum<\/jats:italic>\n                    ). Monthly malaria case data from 27 health centers across Mandoto between 2019 and 2024 were analyzed alongside meteorological data to understand transmission dynamics and forecast potential influences of climate change using descriptive, cross-correlation, and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average forecast models. Over a period of 6 years, 276,318 rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) were performed, yielding a 39.6% positivity rate, totaling 109,428 malaria cases. After 2021, when multispecies RDTs became available, 71.5% of cases were attributed to\n                    <jats:italic>P. falciparum<\/jats:italic>\n                    , and 28.5% were attributed to\n                    <jats:italic>P. vivax<\/jats:italic>\n                    . Both species were co-endemic across all health centers, with the western region experiencing a higher transmission risk. Malaria cases peaked in January, with a second peak from April to June after the rainy season, and declined between July and September. Precipitation and temperature effectively revealed the seasonality of malaria dynamics, thereby improving model accuracy.\n                    <jats:italic>Plasmodium falciparum<\/jats:italic>\n                    exhibited stronger associations with precipitation and temperature variability. The present study highlights that combining time-series modeling with precipitation and temperature data can help predict malaria cases and support timely planning and resource allocation.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.25-0329","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,10]],"date-time":"2026-02-10T15:35:43Z","timestamp":1770737743000},"page":"690-701","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Association of Climate Variables with Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum Malaria Cases in Mandoto, Madagascar: A Statistical Modeling Study"],"prefix":"10.4269","volume":"114","author":[{"given":"Eliharintsoa","family":"Rajaonarimirana","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Epidemiology and Clinical Research Unit, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar;"},{"name":"Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Analytics G5 Unit, Institut Pasteur, Universit\u00e9 Paris Cit\u00e9, INSERM, Paris, France;"},{"name":"Coll\u00e8ge Doctoral, Sorbonne Universit\u00e9, Paris, France;"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Masiarivony","family":"Ravaoarimanga","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Epidemiology and Clinical Research Unit, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar;"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Sophie","family":"Lockwood","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois;"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Estee","family":"Cramer","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Analytics G5 Unit, Institut Pasteur, Universit\u00e9 Paris Cit\u00e9, INSERM, Paris, France;"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Malalatiana","family":"Rajesy","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Mandoto Public Health District Service, Antananarivo, Madagascar;"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Chris","family":"Drakeley","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Infection Biology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Rindra Vatosoa","family":"Randremanana","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Epidemiology and Clinical Research Unit, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar;"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Michael","family":"White","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Analytics G5 Unit, Institut Pasteur, Universit\u00e9 Paris Cit\u00e9, INSERM, Paris, France;"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"2795","reference":[{"key":"b1","article-title":"Plan de D\u00e9veloppement du Secteur Sant\u00e9 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USA","first-page":"5967","article-title":"Plasmodium vivax clinical malaria is commonly observed in Duffy-negative Malagasy people","volume":"107","author":"M\u00e9nard","year":"2010"},{"key":"b32","article-title":"U.S. President\u2019s Malaria Initiative Madagascar Malaria Profile.","year":"2023"},{"key":"b33","series-title":"J Off Stat","first-page":"3","article-title":"STL: A seasonal-trend decomposition","volume":"6","author":"Cleveland","year":"1990"},{"key":"b34","series-title":"J Am Stat Assoc","first-page":"1509","article-title":"Distribution of residual autocorrelations in autoregressive-integrated moving average time series models","volume":"65","author":"Box","year":"1970"},{"key":"b35","series-title":"Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting","author":"Brockwell","year":"2016"},{"key":"b36","series-title":"Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, Fifth Edition","author":"Box","year":"2017"},{"key":"b37","series-title":"Time Series Analysis with Applications in R, 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Parasitol","first-page":"1273","article-title":"Moderate transmission but high prevalence of malaria in Madagascar","volume":"36","author":"Robert","year":"2006"},{"key":"b7","series-title":"Malar J","first-page":"190","article-title":"Longitudinal survey of malaria morbidity over 10 years in Saharevo (Madagascar): Further lessons for strengthening malaria control","volume":"8","author":"Rabarijaona","year":"2009"},{"key":"b8","series-title":"Am J Trop Med Hyg","first-page":"1094","article-title":"Estimating the proportion of Plasmodium vivax recurrences caused by relapse: A systematic review and meta-analysis","volume":"103","author":"Commons","year":"2020"},{"key":"b9","series-title":"Acta Trop","first-page":"240","article-title":"Anthropophilic mosquitoes and malaria transmission in the eastern foothills of the central highlands of Madagascar","volume":"116","author":"Andrianaivolambo","year":"2010"},{"key":"b10","series-title":"Parasit 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in Madagascar","volume":"17","author":"Raobela","year":"2018"},{"key":"b27","series-title":"Malar J","first-page":"242","article-title":"Identification of factors associated with residual malaria transmission using school-based serological surveys in settings pursuing elimination","volume":"21","author":"Rakotondramanga","year":"2022"},{"key":"b28","series-title":"Sci Rep","first-page":"18129","article-title":"Spatiotemporal mapping of malaria prevalence in Madagascar using routine surveillance and health survey data","volume":"10","author":"Arambepola","year":"2020"},{"key":"b29","series-title":"Am J Trop Med Hyg","first-page":"17","article-title":"Malaria elimination: Time to target\u00a0all species","volume":"99","author":"Lover","year":"2018"},{"key":"b30","first-page":"3)","article-title":"Troisi\u00e8me Recensement G\u00e9n\u00e9ral de la Population et de L\u2019habitation (RGPH","year":"2021"},{"key":"b31","series-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci USA","first-page":"5967","article-title":"Plasmodium vivax clinical malaria is commonly observed in Duffy-negative Malagasy people","volume":"107","author":"M\u00e9nard","year":"2010"},{"key":"b32","article-title":"U.S. President\u2019s Malaria Initiative Madagascar Malaria Profile.","year":"2023"},{"key":"b33","series-title":"J Off Stat","first-page":"3","article-title":"STL: A seasonal-trend decomposition","volume":"6","author":"Cleveland","year":"1990"},{"key":"b34","series-title":"J Am Stat Assoc","first-page":"1509","article-title":"Distribution of residual autocorrelations in autoregressive-integrated moving average time series models","volume":"65","author":"Box","year":"1970"},{"key":"b35","series-title":"Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting","author":"Brockwell","year":"2016"},{"key":"b36","series-title":"Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, Fifth Edition","author":"Box","year":"2017"},{"key":"b37","series-title":"Time Series Analysis with Applications in R, 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