{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,29]],"date-time":"2026-01-29T07:33:05Z","timestamp":1769671985299,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":40,"publisher":"Weston Medical Publishing","issue":"6","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["JEM"],"abstract":"<jats:p>With an increase and intensification of tropical storm events in the future, it becomes paramount for individual communities and homeowners to understand their potential risks of impacts from these events. This study describes an empirical modeling methodology using the City of Norfolk in southeastern Virginia to indicate areas of higher risk based on built infrastructure, property exposure, and temporal records of previous losses. Under this new empirical modeling methodology, a risk score is defined as the properties that may be at higher risk from future flooding events based on elevation differences, the number of flood insurance payouts a property has received, and whether a property has an active flood insurance policy. Results make evident how the methodology can be used to characterize a community\u2019s risk and highlight higher-risk hot spots that can in turn be used for future resilience planning and hazard mitigation. Future work to further refine the model can reduce the overall uncertainty levels as data become more publicly accessible.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.5055\/jem.0946","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,28]],"date-time":"2026-01-28T18:31:57Z","timestamp":1769625117000},"page":"673-684","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Integrating flood loss data into an empirical model for community estimates of risk"],"prefix":"10.5055","volume":"23","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1612-8805","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jennifer L.","family":"Whytlaw","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"3008","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,1]]},"reference":[{"key":"98287","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Field CB (ed.): Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation: Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2012.","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9781139177245"},{"key":"98288","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Akash SH, Sarkar SK, Bindajam AA, et al.: Assessment of coastal vulnerability using integrated fuzzy analytical hierarchy process and geospatial technology for effective coastal management. Environ Sci Pollut Res. 2023; 31: 53749-53766.","DOI":"10.1007\/s11356-023-28317-y"},{"key":"98289","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Bukvic A, Rohat G, Apotsos A, et al.: A systematic review of coastal vulnerability mapping. Sustainability. 2020; 12(7): 2822.","DOI":"10.3390\/su12072822"},{"key":"98290","unstructured":"Doukakis E: Coastal vulnerability and risk parameters. Eur Water. 2005; 11(12): 3-7."},{"key":"98291","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Roy P, Pal SC, Chakrabortty R, et al.: Effects of climate change and sea-level rise on coastal habitat: Vulnerability assessment, adaptation strategies and policy recommendations. J Environ Manag. 2023; 330: 117187.","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jenvman.2022.117187"},{"key":"98292","unstructured":"Klein RJ, Nicholls RJ: Assessment of coastal vulnerability to climate change. Ambio. 1999; 28: 182-187."},{"key":"98293","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Escudero Castillo M, Mendoza Baldwin E, Silva Casarin R, et al.: Characterization of risks in coastal zones: A review. Clean Soil Air Water. 2012; 40(9): 894-905.","DOI":"10.1002\/clen.201100679"},{"key":"98294","unstructured":"McLean RF, Tsyban A, Burkett V, et al.: Coastal zones and marine ecosystems. Clim Change. 2001; 343-379. Available at https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/site\/assets\/uploads\/2018\/03\/wg2TARchap6.pdf. Accessed May 20, 2024."},{"key":"98295","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Wood M, Kovacs D, Bostrom A, et al.: Flood risk management: US army corps of engineers and layperson perceptions. Risk Anal. 2012; 32(8): 1349-1368.","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1539-6924.2012.01832.x"},{"key":"98296","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Glik DC: Risk communication for public health emergencies. Annu Rev Public Health. 2007; 28: 33-54.","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.publhealth.28.021406.144123"},{"key":"98297","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Masselink G, Lazarus ED: Defining coastal resilience. Water. 2019; 11(12): 2587.","DOI":"10.3390\/w11122587"},{"key":"98298","unstructured":"Bowling T: Working waterfronts and the CZMA: Defining water-dependent use. Maine Sea Grant Publications. 2013; 61. Available at https:\/\/digitalcommons.library.umaine.edu\/seagrant_pub\/61. Accessed May 20, 2024."},{"key":"98299","unstructured":"NOAA Coastal Zone Management Act Website: Available at https:\/\/coast.noaa.gov\/czm\/act\/. Accessed May 21, 2024."},{"key":"98300","unstructured":"Congressional Research Service: Introduction to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). 2021. Available at https:\/\/fas.org\/sgp\/crs\/homesec\/R44593.pdf. Accessed May 20, 2024."},{"key":"98301","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Guo M, Gong J, Whytlaw JL: Large-scale cloud-based building elevation data extraction and flood insurance estimation to support floodplain management. Int J Disaster Risk Reduct. 2022; 69: 102741.","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijdrr.2021.102741"},{"key":"98302","unstructured":"FEMA: Elevation certificate. 2023. Available at https:\/\/www.fema.gov\/about\/glossary\/elevation-certificate. Accessed February 23, 2025."},{"key":"98303","unstructured":"FEMA: NFIP floodplain management requirements. 2005. Available at https:\/\/www.fema.gov\/sites\/default\/files\/documents\/fema-480_floodplain-management-study-guide_local-officials.pdf. Accessed May 20, 2024."},{"key":"98304","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Brody SD: Examining the influence of development patterns on flood damages along the Gulf of Mexico. J Plan Educ Res. 2011; 31(4): 438-448.","DOI":"10.1177\/0739456X11419515"},{"key":"98305","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Tyler J, Sadiq AA, Noonan DS: A review of the community flood risk management literature in the USA: Lessons for improving community resilience to floods. Nat Hazards. 2019; 96: 1223-1248.","DOI":"10.1007\/s11069-019-03606-3"},{"key":"98306","unstructured":"FEMA: Community rating system overview and participation. 2021. Available at https:\/\/www.fema.gov\/fact-sheet\/community-ratingsystem-overview-and-participation. Accessed February 23, 2025."},{"key":"98307","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Wang Y, Sebastian A: Community flood vulnerability and risk assessment: An empirical predictive modeling approach. J Flood Risk Manag. 2021; 14(3): e12739.","DOI":"10.1111\/jfr3.12739"},{"key":"98308","unstructured":"NOAA Office for Coastal Management: Economics: National Ocean Watch. Available at http:\/\/coast.noaa.gov\/digitalcoast\/data\/enow.html. Accessed May 20, 2024."},{"key":"98309","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Ezer T: A demonstration of a simple methodology of flood prediction for a coastal city under threat of sea level rise: The case of Norfolk, VA, USA. Earths Future. 2022; 10: E2022EF002786. DOI: 10.1029\/2022EF002786.","DOI":"10.1029\/2022EF002786"},{"key":"98310","unstructured":"City of Norfolk: Flooding. 2024. Available at https:\/\/www.norfolk.gov\/4832\/Flooding. Accessed May 15, 2024."},{"key":"98311","unstructured":"City of Norfolk: Flooding & water quality studies & projects. 2024. Available at https:\/\/norfolk.gov\/3968\/Flooding-Water-Quality-Studies-Projects. Accessed June 4, 2024."},{"key":"98312","unstructured":"City of Norfolk(c): Flooding: What is the city doing. Available at https:\/\/www.norfolk.gov\/4837\/What-is-the-City-Doing. Accessed October 28, 2024."},{"key":"98313","unstructured":"Norfolk OpenData: STORM: System to Track, Organize, Record, and Map. Available at https:\/\/data.norfolk.gov\/Public-Safety\/STORM-System-to-Track-Organize-Record-and-Map\/mrv3-rcpc\/data. Accessed October 28, 2024."},{"key":"98314","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Burgos AG, Hamlington BD, Thompson PR, et al.: Future nuisance flooding in Norfolk, VA, from astronomical tides and annual to decadal internal climate variability. Geophys Res Lett. 2018; 45(22): 12-432.","DOI":"10.1029\/2018GL079572"},{"key":"98315","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Hutton NS, Allen TR: Perceptions of visual and in situ representations of sea level rise and tidal flooding: The blue line project, Norfolk, Virginia. GeoJournal. 2022; 87(3): 2081-2099.","DOI":"10.1007\/s10708-020-10356-4"},{"key":"98316","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Pezza DA, White JM: Impact of the duration of coastal flooding on infrastructure. Public Works Manag Pol. 2021; 26(2): 144-163.","DOI":"10.1177\/1087724X20915918"},{"key":"98317","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Praharaj S, Chen TD, Zahura FT, et al.: Estimating impacts of recurring flooding on roadway networks: A Norfolk, Virginia case study. Nat Hazards. 2021; 107: 2363-2387.","DOI":"10.1007\/s11069-020-04427-5"},{"key":"98318","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"George A, Stead TS, Ganti L: What\u2019s the risk: Differentiating risk ratios, odds ratios, and hazard ratios? Cureus. 2020; 12(8): e10047.","DOI":"10.7759\/cureus.10047"},{"key":"98319","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Ullah K, Zhang J: GIS-based flood hazard mapping using relative frequency ratio method: A case study of Panjkora River Basin, Eastern Hindu Kush, Pakistan. PLoS One. 2020; 15(3): e0229153.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0229153"},{"key":"98320","unstructured":"Masse T, O\u2019Neil S, Rollins J: The Department of Homeland Security\u2019s risk assessment methodology: Evolution, issues and options for congress. Congressional Research Service, Library of Congress. 2007."},{"key":"98321","unstructured":"FEMA: Freeboard. 2020. Available at https:\/\/www.fema.gov\/glossary\/freeboard. Accessed July 7, 2024."},{"key":"98322","unstructured":"City of Norfolk, Virginia: Building a better Norfolk: A zoning ordinance for the 21st century. Available at https:\/\/www.norfolkva.gov\/norfolkzoningordinance. Accessed May 20, 2024."},{"key":"98323","unstructured":"FEMA: Base flood elevation. 2020. Available at https:\/\/www.fema.gov\/node\/4042333. Accessed May 20, 2024."},{"key":"98324","unstructured":"National Research Council: Division on Earth, Life Studies, Board on Earth Sciences, Mapping Science Committee, Committee on Land Parcel Databases, and A National Vision: National Land Parcel Data: A Vision for the Future. Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 2007."},{"key":"98325","unstructured":"ESRI: Optimized hot spot analysis (spatial statistics). 2025. Available at https:\/\/pro.arcgis.com\/en\/pro-app\/latest\/tool-reference\/spatial-statistics\/optimized-hot-spot-analysis.htm. Accessed February 24, 2025."},{"key":"98326","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Caldas de Castro M, Singer BH: Controlling the false discovery rate: A new application to account for multiple and dependent test in local statistics of spatial association. Geogr Anal. 2006; 38: 180-208.","DOI":"10.1111\/j.0016-7363.2006.00682.x"}],"container-title":["Journal of Emergency Management"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/wmpllc.org\/ojs\/index.php\/jem\/article\/download\/3936\/4220","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/wmpllc.org\/ojs\/index.php\/jem\/article\/download\/3936\/4220","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,28]],"date-time":"2026-01-28T18:32:09Z","timestamp":1769625129000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/wmpllc.org\/ojs\/index.php\/jem\/article\/view\/3936"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,1]]},"references-count":40,"journal-issue":{"issue":"6","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,19]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5055\/jem.0946","relation":{},"ISSN":["1543-5865","1543-5865"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1543-5865","type":"electronic"},{"value":"1543-5865","type":"print"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,1]]}}}