{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,28]],"date-time":"2026-02-28T06:55:11Z","timestamp":1772261711056,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":113,"publisher":"Copernicus GmbH","issue":"12","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,12,2]],"date-time":"2021-12-02T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1638403200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100014440","name":"Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovaci\u00f3n y Universidades","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["EPHIMED (CGL2017-86839-C3-1-R)"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["EPHIMED (CGL2017-86839-C3-1-R)"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100014440","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100013162","name":"Fundaci\u00f3n Biodiversidad","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["PRCV00446"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["PRCV00446"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100013162","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci."],"abstract":"<jats:p>Abstract. Current climate modelling frameworks present significant\nuncertainties when it comes to quantifying flood quantiles in the context of\nclimate change, calling for new information and strategies in hazard\nassessments. Here, state-of-the-art methods on hydraulic and statistical\nmodelling are applied to historical and contemporaneous flood records to\nevaluate flood hazards beyond natural climate cycles. A comprehensive flood\nrecord of the Duero River in Zamora (Spain) was compiled from documentary\nsources, early water-level readings and continuous gauge records spanning\nthe last 500\u00a0years. Documentary evidence of flood events includes minute\nbooks (municipal and ecclesiastic), narrative descriptions, epigraphic\nmarks, newspapers and technical reports. We identified 69 flood events over\nthe period 1250 to 1871, of which 15 were classified as catastrophic\nfloods, 16 as extraordinary floods and 38 as ordinary floods. Subsequently,\na two-dimensional hydraulic model was implemented to relate flood stages (flood marks and\ninundated areas) to discharges. The historical flood records show the\nlargest floods over the last 500\u00a0years occurred in 1860 (3450\u2009m3\u2009s\u22121),\n1597 (3200\u2009m3\u2009s\u22121) and 1739 (2700\u2009m3\u2009s\u22121). Moreover, at least 24\nfloods exceeded the perception threshold of 1900\u2009m3\u2009s\u22121 during the period\n(1500\u20131871). Annual maximum flood records were completed with gauged\nwater-level readings (pre-instrumental dataset, PRE: 1872\u20131919) and systematic gauge records (systematic\ndataset, SYS:\n1920\u20132018). The flood frequency analyses were based on (1) the expected moments\nalgorithm (EMA) and (2) the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) method, using\nfive datasets with different temporal frameworks (historic dataset, HISTO: 1511\u20132018; PRE\u2013SYS:\n1872\u20132018; full systematic record, ALLSYS: 1920\u20132018; SYS1: 1920\u20131969; and SYS2: 1970\u20132018). The\nmost consistent results were obtained using the HISTO dataset, even for high\nquantiles (0.001\u2009% annual exceedance probability, AEP). PRE\u2013SYS was robust\nfor the 1\u2009% AEP flood with increasing uncertainty in the 0.2\u2009% AEP or\n500-year flood, and ALLSYS results were uncertain in the 1\u2009% and 0.2\u2009%\nAEP floods. Since the 1970s, the frequency of extraordinary floods\n(&gt;1900\u2009m3\u2009s\u22121) declined, although floods on the range of the\nhistorical perception threshold occurred in 2001 (2075\u2009m3\u2009s\u22121) and 2013\n(1654\u2009m3\u2009s\u22121). Even if the future remains uncertain, this bottom-up\napproach addresses flood hazards under climate variability, providing real\nand certain flood discharges. Our results can provide a guide on low-regret\nadaptation decisions and improve public perception of extreme flooding.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.5194\/hess-25-6107-2021","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,12,2]],"date-time":"2021-12-02T07:48:30Z","timestamp":1638431310000},"page":"6107-6132","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":27,"title":["Enhanced flood hazard assessment beyond decadal climate cycles based on centennial historical data (Duero basin, Spain)"],"prefix":"10.5194","volume":"25","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0724-1790","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Gerardo","family":"Benito","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Olegario","family":"Castillo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Juan A.","family":"Ballesteros-C\u00e1novas","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Maria","family":"Machado","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Mariano","family":"Barriendos","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"3145","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,12,2]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref1","unstructured":"Aires, C., Pereira, D. 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