{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,19]],"date-time":"2026-10-19T03:39:18Z","timestamp":1792381158757,"version":"4.4.0"},"reference-count":39,"publisher":"Copernicus GmbH","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2012,6,18]],"date-time":"2012-06-18T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1339977600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/3.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci."],"abstract":"<jats:p>Abstract. Modelling approaches are needed to accelerate understanding of adverse weather impacts on crop performances and yields. The aim was to elicit biometeorological conditions that affect Belgian arable crop yield, commensurate with the scale of climatic impacts. The regional crop model REGCROP (Gobin, 2010) enabled to examine changing weather patterns in relation to the crop season and crop sensitive stages of six arable crops: winter wheat, winter barley, winter rapeseed, potato, sugar beet and maize. The sum of vapour pressure deficit during the growing season is the single best predictor of arable yields, with R2 ranging from 0.55 for sugar beet to 0.76 for wheat. Drought and heat stress, in particular during the sensitive crop stages, occur at different times in the crop season and significantly differ between two climatic periods, 1947\u20131987 and 1988\u20132008. Though average yields have risen steadily between 1947 and 2008, there is no evidence that relative tolerance to stress has improved.\n                    <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.5194\/nhess-12-1911-2012","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2012,6,18]],"date-time":"2012-06-18T15:58:25Z","timestamp":1340035105000},"page":"1911-1922","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":59,"title":["Impact of heat and drought stress on arable crop production in Belgium"],"prefix":"10.5194","volume":"12","author":[{"given":"A.","family":"Gobin","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"3145","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2012,6,18]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref1","unstructured":"ADSEI: Landbouw: statistieken en cijfers, available at: http:\/\/statbel.fgov.be\/nl\/statistieken\/cijfers\/economie\/landbouw\/index.jsp, 2008."},{"key":"ref2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Ainsworth, E. and Long, S.: What have we learned from 15 years of Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE)?, New Phythologist, 165, 351\u2013371, 2005.","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1469-8137.2004.01224.x"},{"key":"ref3","unstructured":"Allen, R. G., Pereira, L. S., Raes, D., and Smith, M.: Crop evapotranspiration: Guidelines for computing crop requirements, FAO, Irrigation and Drainage Paper No. 56, FAO, Rome, Italy, 300 pp., 1998."},{"key":"ref4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Asseng, S., Foster, I., and Turner, N. C.: The impact of temperature variability on wheat yields, Glob. Change Biol., 17, 997\u20131012, 2011.","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2486.2010.02262.x"},{"key":"ref5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Beirlant, J., Goegebeur, Y., Segers, J., and Teugels, J.: Statistics of Extremes: Theory and Applications, John Wiley &amp; Sons, Chapter 1, 1\u201344, 2004.","DOI":"10.1002\/0470012382"},{"key":"ref6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Bindi, M. and Olesen, J.: The responses of agriculture in Europe to climate change, Reg. Environ. Change, 11, S151\u2013S158, 2011.","DOI":"10.1007\/s10113-010-0173-x"},{"key":"ref7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Boote, K. J., Allen, L. H., Prasad, P. V. V., Baker, J. T., Gesch, R. W., Synder, A. M., Pan, D., and Thomas, J. M. G.: Elevated temperature and CO2 impacts on pollination, reproductive growth and yield of several globally important crops, J. Agric. Meteorol., 60, 469\u2013474, 2005.","DOI":"10.2480\/agrmet.469"},{"key":"ref8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Cattivellia, L., Rizza, F., Badeck, F.-W., Mazzucotelli, E., Mastrangelo, A. M., Francia, E., Mar\u00e8, C., Tondellia, A., and Stanca, M.: Drought tolerance improvement in crop plants: An integrated view from breeding to genomics, Drought tolerance improvement in crop plants: An integrated view from breeding to genomics, Field Crops Res., 105, 1\u201314, 2008.","DOI":"10.1016\/j.fcr.2007.07.004"},{"key":"ref9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Challinor, A. J., Wheeler, T. W., and Slingo, M.: Simulation of the impact of high temperature stress on the yield of an annual crop, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 135, 180\u2013189, 2005.","DOI":"10.1016\/j.agrformet.2005.11.015"},{"key":"ref10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Davies, W. J.: Responses of plant growth and functioning to changes in water supply in a changing climate, in: Plant Growth and Climate Change, edited by: Morison, J. I. L. and Morecroft, D. M., Blackwell Publishing, Oxford, 96\u2013114, 2007.","DOI":"10.1002\/9780470988695.ch5"},{"key":"ref11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"De Jongh, I. L. M., Verhoest, N. E. C., and De Troch, F. P.: Analysis of a 105-year time series of precipitation observed at Uccle, Belgium, Int. J. Climatol., 26, 2023\u20132039, 2006.","DOI":"10.1002\/joc.1352"},{"key":"ref12","unstructured":"EC: Farm structure survey statistics on agricultural holdings in the EU, available at: http:\/\/epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu\/portal\/page\/portal\/agriculture\/data\/database, 2011."},{"key":"ref13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Falloon, P. and Betts, R.: Climate impacts on European agriculture and water management in the context of adaptation and mitigation \u2013 The importance of and integrated approach, Science Total Environ., 408, 5667\u20135687, 2010.","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2009.05.002"},{"key":"ref14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Fletcher, A. L., Sinclair, T. R., Allen, L. H. J. R.: Transpiration responses to vapor pressure deficit in well watered &quot;slow-wilting&quot; and commercial soybean, Environ. Experimental Botany, 61, 145\u2013151, 2007.","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envexpbot.2007.05.004"},{"key":"ref15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Gobin, A.: Modelling climate impacts on arable yields in Belgium, Clim. Res., 44, 55\u201368, 2010.","DOI":"10.3354\/cr00925"},{"key":"ref16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Hansen, J. W., Challinor, A., Ines, A. V. M., Wheeler, T., and Moron, V.: Translating climate forecasts into agricultural terms: advances and challenges, Clim. Res., 33, 27\u201341, 2006.","DOI":"10.3354\/cr033027"},{"key":"ref17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Huntington, T. G.: Climate warming-induced intensification of the hydrologic cycle: an assessment of the published record and potential impacts on agriculture, Adv. Agron., 109, 1\u201353, 2010.","DOI":"10.1016\/B978-0-12-385040-9.00001-3"},{"key":"ref18","unstructured":"IPCC: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I., edited by: Parry, M. L., Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J. P., van der Linden, P. J., and Hanson, C. E., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 976 pp., 2007."},{"key":"ref19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"K\u00f6rner, C.: Significance of temperature in plant life, in: Plant growth and climate change, edited by: Morison, J. I. L. and Morecroft, M. D., 2nd Edn., Blackwell Publishing, Oxford, UK, 48\u201369, 2006.","DOI":"10.1002\/9780470988695"},{"key":"ref20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Maracchi, G., Sirotenko, O., and Bindi, M.: Impacts of present and future climate variability on agriculture and forestry in the temperate regions: Europe, Climatic Change, 70, 117\u2013135, 2005.","DOI":"10.1007\/s10584-005-5939-7"},{"key":"ref21","unstructured":"Marbaix, P. and van Ypersele, J. P.: Impacts of climate change in Belgium, Brussels, Greenpeace, 2004."},{"key":"ref22","unstructured":"McKee, T. B., Doeskens, N. J., and Kleist, J.: The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales, 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, 17\u201322 January, Anaheim, CA, 179\u2013184, 1993."},{"key":"ref23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Mechler, R., Hochrainer, S., Aaheim, A., Salen, H., and Wreford, A.: Modelling economic impacts and adaptation to extreme events: Insights from European case studies, Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change, 15, 737\u2013762, 2010.","DOI":"10.1007\/s11027-010-9249-7"},{"key":"ref24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Monteith, J. L. and Moss, C. J.: Climate and the efficiency of crop production in Britain (and Discussion), Philos. T. Roy. Soc., 281, 277\u2013294, 1977.","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.1977.0140"},{"key":"ref25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Ntegeka, V. and Willems, P.: Trends and multidecadal oscillations in rainfall extremes, based on a more than 100 years time series of 10 minutes rainfall intensities at Uccle, Belgium, Water Resour. Res., 44, 15 pp., 2008.","DOI":"10.1029\/2007WR006471"},{"key":"ref26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Olesen, J. E., Trnka, M., Kersebaum, K. C., Skjelv\u00e5g, A. O., Seguin, B., Peltonen-Saino, P., Rossi, F., Kozyra, J., and Micale, F.: Impacts and adaptation of European crop production systems to climate change, Eur. J. Agron., 34, 96\u2013112, 2011.","DOI":"10.1016\/j.eja.2010.11.003"},{"key":"ref27","unstructured":"Palmer, W.: Meteorological Drought. Research paper no. 45, US Department of Commerce Weather Bureau, available by the NOAA National Climatic Data Center at: http:\/\/www.ncdc.noaa.gov\/temp-and-precip\/drought\/docs\/palmer.pdf, 58 pp., 1965."},{"key":"ref28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Prasad, P. V. V., Craufurd, P. Q., Summerfield, R. J., and Wheeler, T. R.: Effects of short episodes of heat stress on flower production and fruit-set of groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.), J. Exp. Bot., 51, 777\u2013784, 2000b.","DOI":"10.1093\/jexbot\/51.345.777"},{"key":"ref29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Reidsma, P., Ewert, F., Oude Lansink, A., and Leemans, R.: Adaptation to climate change and climate variability in European agriculture: The importance of farm level responses, Eur. J. Agron., 32, 91\u2013102, 2010.","DOI":"10.1016\/j.eja.2009.06.003"},{"key":"ref30","unstructured":"RMI (Royal Meteorological Institute): Huidig klimaat van Belgi\u00eb, Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, Brussels, available at: http:\/\/www.meteo.be\/meteo\/view\/nl\/6042923-Huidig+klimaat+Belgie.html (last access: 26 January 2012), 2012 (in Dutch)."},{"key":"ref31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Rodriguez, D. and Sadras, V. O.: The limit to wheat water use efficiency in eastern Australia, I. Gradients in the radiation environment and atmospheric demand, Aust. J. Agr. Res., 58, 287\u2013302, 2007.","DOI":"10.1071\/AR06135"},{"key":"ref32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Rizhysky, L., Liang, H., Shuman, J., Shulaev, V., Davletova, S., and Mittler, R.: When defense pathways collide: The response of Arabidopsis to a combination of drought and heat stress, Plant Physiol., 134, 1683\u20131696, 2004.","DOI":"10.1104\/pp.103.033431"},{"key":"ref33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Saxton, K. E. and Rawls, W. J.:. Soil Water Characteristic Estimates by Texture and Organic Matter for Hydrologic Solutions, Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J., 70, 1569\u20131578, 2006.","DOI":"10.2136\/sssaj2005.0117"},{"key":"ref34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Schlenkera, W. and Roberts, M. J.: Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to US crop yields under climate change, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 106, 15594\u201315598, 2009.","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0906865106"},{"key":"ref35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Semenov, M. and Shewry, P. R.: Modelling predicts that heat stress, not drought, will increase vulnerability of wheat in Europe, Nature Scientific Reports, 1, 66, 2011.","DOI":"10.1038\/srep00066"},{"key":"ref36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Tashiro, T. and Wardlaw, I. F.: A comparison of the effect of high-temperature on grain development in wheat and rice, Ann. Bot., 64, 59\u201365, 1989.","DOI":"10.1093\/oxfordjournals.aob.a087808"},{"key":"ref37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Tsakiris, G., Pangalou, D., and Vangelis, H.: Regional Drought Assessment based on the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI), Water Resour. Manag., 21, 821\u2013833, 2007.","DOI":"10.1007\/s11269-006-9105-4"},{"key":"ref38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Wand, S. J. E., Midgley, G. F., Jones, M. H., and Curtis, P. S.: Responses of wild C4 and C3 grass (Poaceae) species to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration: a meta-analytic test of current theories and perceptions, Glob. Change Biol., 5, 723\u2013741, 1999.","DOI":"10.1046\/j.1365-2486.1999.00265.x"},{"key":"ref39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Witcombe, J. R., Hollington, P. A., Howarth, C. J., Reader, S., and Steele, K. A.: Breeding for abiotic stresses for sustainable agriculture, Philos. T. R. Soc. B, 363, 703\u2013716, 2008.","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2007.2179"}],"container-title":["Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/nhess.copernicus.org\/articles\/12\/1911\/2012\/nhess-12-1911-2012.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2021,1,23]],"date-time":"2021-01-23T23:56:04Z","timestamp":1611446164000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/nhess.copernicus.org\/articles\/12\/1911\/2012\/"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2012,6,18]]},"references-count":39,"journal-issue":{"issue":"6","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2012]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5194\/nhess-12-1911-2012","relation":{},"ISSN":["1684-9981"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1684-9981","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2012,6,18]]}}}