{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,3,19]],"date-time":"2025-03-19T18:41:35Z","timestamp":1742409695083,"version":"3.40.1"},"posted":{"date-parts":[[2025,3,18]]},"group-title":"display","reference-count":0,"publisher":"Copernicus GmbH","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"abstract":"<jats:p>Extreme Climate Indices for precipitation are imperative climate indicators, especially in small islands such as the Azores, which are highly susceptible to climate variability and change. This study uses results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to evaluate historical and projected trends in precipitation related extreme climate indices within the Azores and spatial patterns extensive to the Northeast Atlantic region. Using a robust ensemble of climate models, this work analyzes the annual total precipitation, the annual number of wet days (&amp;#8805;20 mm\/day) (R20) and the annual number of consecutive dry days (&lt; 1mm) (CDD), examining their historical accuracy and future projections under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs).Historically, CMIP6 simulations demonstrated a reasonable alignment with ERA5 reanalysis data for total precipitation, with a insignificant bias of &amp;#8722;6.3 &amp;#177; 123.7 mm for the Azores during the 1961&amp;#8211;1990 baseline period. The models captured spatial variability across the Northeast Atlantic, although some localized discrepancies persisted. While annual precipitation projections show no significant changes, CDD and R20 mm increases are small but very likely for the SSP 5 8.5 scenario.Projections under SSP scenarios reveal nuanced changes in precipitation patterns. The total annual precipitation exhibits small positive trends under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios, with rates of 3.79 mm\/decade and 2.11 mm\/decade, respectively, while SSP5-8.5 projects a slight negative trend (&amp;#8722;1.23 mm\/decade). These findings suggest a potential stabilization or marginal increase in precipitation levels under low-to-moderate emission pathways but highlight the risk of drier conditions under high-emission scenarios.The R20, a critical measure for agriculture, risk management and water resource planning, is projected to follow a similar pattern. Under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5, the annual count of wet days increases slightly, reflecting potential intensification in extreme precipitation events. Conversely, SSP5-8.5 shows a reduction in wet days, aligning with broader CDD trends projected for high-emission scenarios. These projections emphasize the heightened variability in precipitation characteristics under higher emission climate pathways.Spatial analysis highlights significant heterogeneity across the Northeast Atlantic, with adjacent continental regions experiencing more pronounced changes compared to the oceanic regions. Furthermore, the role of topography in shaping localized precipitation patterns remains a critical area for future research, particularly given the limitations of coarse model resolutions in capturing island-scale processes.The findings underscore the importance of integrating climate projections into regional planning and adaptation strategies. While the Azores may face relatively modest changes in precipitation under certain scenarios, the potential for increased variability and intensity of extreme events cannot be overlooked. As wet days and consecutive dry days trends evolve, their implications for water management, agriculture, risk management and infrastructure resilience warrant proactive measures. Continued refinement of climate models and increased resolution for small island systems are essential to enhance the accuracy and applicability of future projections.This study contributes to a growing knowledge on the impacts of climate change on small island states and emphasizes the critical need for adaptation policies that consider the unique vulnerabilities of these regions.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.5194\/egusphere-egu25-13800","type":"posted-content","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,3,15]],"date-time":"2025-03-15T01:45:01Z","timestamp":1742003101000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Assessing Extreme Climate Indices for Precipitation in the Azores: Insights from CMIP6 Climate Projections"],"prefix":"10.5194","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9356-3045","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Maria","family":"Meirelles","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Fernanda","family":"Carvalho","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Diamantino","family":"Henriques","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5935-870X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Helena","family":"Vasconcelos","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Patr\u00edcia","family":"Navarro","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Jo\u00e3o","family":"Porteiro","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"3145","container-title":[],"original-title":[],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,3,18]],"date-time":"2025-03-18T13:31:13Z","timestamp":1742304673000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/meetingorganizer.copernicus.org\/EGU25\/EGU25-13800.html"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,3,18]]},"references-count":0,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5194\/egusphere-egu25-13800","relation":{},"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,3,18]]},"subtype":"other"}}