{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,6]],"date-time":"2026-01-06T13:11:25Z","timestamp":1767705085460,"version":"3.48.0"},"posted":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,6]]},"group-title":"display","reference-count":0,"publisher":"Copernicus GmbH","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"abstract":"<jats:p>Portugal is a fire-prone country, due to climate conditions that drive high fuel availability. In the 21st century, several catastrophic fire seasons have occurred, with an extremely high total burned area and the loss of human lives. Extreme fire seasons typically occur under hot and dry conditions, such as 2003, 2005, and 2017, although wind is known to facilitate fire spread, as occurred in October of 2017 due to the Ophelia storm.In this work, the bivariate relationship between Fire Radiative Power (FRP), daily temperature, and wind speed was assessed, using copula functions, which estimate the joint distribution of two variables. This method is specially suited to analyse extreme events, since it is possible to model asymmetrical relationships, namely tail dependences. FRP was retrieved from MODIS, with a spatial resolution of 1 km, and hourly temperature and hourly wind components were obtained from the ERA Land dataset, with a spatial resolution of 0.1\u00b0. Only the maximum FRP value occurring on each ERA Land grid point was used. Copula functions were fitted to FRP and the weather variables on the day of the fire and on the previous days, for the period 2001-2020. Conditional probabilities of FRP were then computed, given extreme values of temperature and wind intensity. Forests and shrublands are very prone to burn in Portugal, but since the fuel accumulation and availability is very different in these land covers, they were assessed separately.The results show that extreme values of temperature and wind intensity increase the probability of high values of FRP, when compared to lower temperatures and weaker winds, and that the probability is higher for the case of temperature extremes.Ackowledgements: This study was supported by FCT I.P.\/MCTES (Funda\u00e7\u00e3o para a Ci\u00eancia e Tecnologia, Portugal)\u00a0 through national funds (PIDDAC):\u00a0 UIDB\/50019\/2020 (https:\/\/doi.org\/10.54499\/UIDB\/50019\/2020), UIDP\/50019\/2020 (https:\/\/doi.org\/10.54499\/UIDP\/50019\/2020) and LA\/P\/0068\/2020 (https:\/\/doi.org\/10.54499\/LA\/P\/0068\/2020), \u201cFundos pr\u00f3prios para desenvolvimento de projetos de I&amp;D\u201d Project MEDCEX - reference: 100SPID8106.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.5194\/egusphere-plinius18-90","type":"posted-content","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,7,11]],"date-time":"2024-07-11T03:10:36Z","timestamp":1720667436000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["The link between temperature and wind extremes with fire activity in Portugal in the 21st century"],"prefix":"10.5194","author":[{"given":"Patr\u00edcia","family":"P\u00e1scoa","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Soraia","family":"Pereira","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7683-228X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Patr\u00edcia","family":"de Zea Bermudez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3147-5696","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"C\u00e9lia","family":"M. Gouveia","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"3145","container-title":[],"original-title":[],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,6]],"date-time":"2026-01-06T12:40:24Z","timestamp":1767703224000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/meetingorganizer.copernicus.org\/Plinius18\/Plinius18-90.html"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,6]]},"references-count":0,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5194\/egusphere-plinius18-90","relation":{},"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,6]]},"subtype":"other"}}