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Model Dev."],"abstract":"<jats:p>Abstract. Empirical evidence demonstrates that lakes and reservoirs are warming across\nthe globe. Consequently, there is an increased need to project future\nchanges in lake thermal structure and resulting changes in lake\nbiogeochemistry in order to plan for the likely impacts. Previous studies of\nthe impacts of climate change on lakes have often relied on a single model\nforced with limited scenario-driven projections of future climate for a\nrelatively small number of lakes. As a result, our understanding of the\neffects of climate change on lakes is fragmentary, based on scattered\nstudies using different data sources and modelling protocols, and mainly\nfocused on individual lakes or lake regions. This has precluded\nidentification of the main impacts of climate change on lakes at global and\nregional scales and has likely contributed to the lack of lake water quality\nconsiderations in policy-relevant documents, such as the Assessment Reports\nof the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here, we describe a\nsimulation protocol developed by the Lake Sector of the Inter-Sectoral\nImpact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) for simulating climate change\nimpacts on lakes using an ensemble of lake models and climate change\nscenarios for ISIMIP phases 2 and 3. The protocol prescribes lake\nsimulations driven by climate forcing from gridded observations and\ndifferent Earth system models under various representative greenhouse gas\nconcentration pathways (RCPs), all consistently bias-corrected on a\n0.5\u2218\u2009\u00d7\u20090.5\u2218 global grid. In ISIMIP phase 2, 11 lake\nmodels were forced with these data to project the thermal structure of 62\nwell-studied lakes where data were available for calibration under\nhistorical conditions, and using uncalibrated models for 17\u2009500 lakes\ndefined for all global grid cells containing lakes. In ISIMIP phase 3, this\napproach was expanded to consider more lakes, more models, and more\nprocesses. The ISIMIP Lake Sector is the largest international effort to\nproject future water temperature, thermal structure, and ice phenology of\nlakes at local and global scales and paves the way for future simulations of\nthe impacts of climate change on water quality and biogeochemistry in lakes.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd-15-4597-2022","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,6,16]],"date-time":"2022-06-16T02:52:18Z","timestamp":1655347938000},"page":"4597-4623","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":89,"title":["A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide: the ISIMIP Lake Sector"],"prefix":"10.5194","volume":"15","author":[{"given":"Malgorzata","family":"Golub","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5183-6145","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Wim","family":"Thiery","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7416-4652","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Rafael","family":"Marc\u00e9","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6230-0146","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Don","family":"Pierson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8673-1933","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Inne","family":"Vanderkelen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4572-3029","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Daniel","family":"Mercado-Bettin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"R. 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J., and Grimm, V.: Merging validation and\nevaluation of ecological models to \u201cevaludation\u201d: A review of terminology\nand a practical approach, Ecol. Modell., 280, 117\u2013128,\nhttps:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2013.11.009, 2014.","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2013.11.009"},{"key":"ref2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Ayala, A. I., Moras, S., and Pierson, D. C.: Simulations of future changes in thermal structure of Lake Erken: proof of concept for ISIMIP2b lake sector local simulation strategy, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3311\u20133330, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5194\/hess-24-3311-2020, 2020.","DOI":"10.5194\/hess-24-3311-2020"},{"key":"ref3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Balsamo, G., Salgado, R., Dutra, E., Boussetta, S., Stockdale, T., and\nPotes, M.: On the contribution of lakes in predicting near-surface\ntemperature in a global weather forecasting model, Tellus A, 64, 15829,\nhttps:\/\/doi.org\/10.3402\/tellusa.v64i0.15829, 2012.","DOI":"10.3402\/tellusa.v64i0.15829"},{"key":"ref4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Beusen, A. H. W., Van Beek, L. P. H., Bouwman, A. F., Mogoll\u00f3n, J. M., and Middelburg, J. J.: Coupling global models for hydrology and nutrient loading to simulate nitrogen and phosphorus retention in surface water \u2013 description of IMAGE\u2013GNM and analysis of performance, Geosci. 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G., Moreira, S., \u00d6zkundakci,\nD., Pilotti, M., Rueda, F. J., Rusak, J. A., Samal, N. R., Schmid, M.,\nShatwell, T., Snorthheim, C., Soulignac, F., Valerio, G., van der Linden,\nL., Vetter, M., Vin\u00e7on-Leite, B., Wang, J., Weber, M., Wickramaratne,\nC., Woolway, R. I., Yao, H., and Hipsey, M. R.: A multi-lake comparative\nanalysis of the General Lake Model (GLM): Stress-testing across a global\nobservatory network, Environ. Model. Softw., 102, 274\u2013291,\nhttps:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.envsoft.2017.11.016, 2018.","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envsoft.2017.11.016"},{"key":"ref7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Bruggeman, J. and Bolding, K.: A general framework for aquatic\nbiogeochemical models, Environ. Model. Softw., 61, 249\u2013265,\nhttps:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.envsoft.2014.04.002, 2014.","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envsoft.2014.04.002"},{"key":"ref8","unstructured":"Burchard, H., Bolding, K., and Villarreal, M. 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