{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,24]],"date-time":"2026-03-24T20:20:26Z","timestamp":1774383626686,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":63,"publisher":"Copernicus GmbH","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2018,4,4]],"date-time":"2018-04-04T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1522800000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci."],"abstract":"<jats:p>Abstract. This work proposes a comprehensive method to assess rainfall thresholds for\nlandslide initiation using a centenary landslide database associated with a\nsingle centenary daily rainfall data set. The method is applied to the Lisbon\nregion and includes the rainfall return period analysis that was used to\nidentify the critical rainfall combination (cumulated rainfall duration) related to each landslide event. The spatial\nrepresentativeness of the reference rain gauge is evaluated and the rainfall\nthresholds are assessed and calibrated using the receiver operating\ncharacteristic (ROC) metrics. Results show that landslide events located up to 10\u2009km from the rain gauge\ncan be used to calculate the rainfall thresholds in the study area; however,\nthese thresholds may be used with acceptable confidence up to 50\u2009km\nfrom the rain gauge. The rainfall thresholds obtained using linear and\npotential regression perform well in ROC metrics. However, the\nintermediate thresholds based on the probability of landslide events\nestablished in the zone between the lower-limit threshold and the upper-limit threshold are much more informative as they indicate the probability\nof landslide event occurrence given rainfall exceeding the threshold. This\ninformation can be easily included in landslide early warning systems,\nespecially when combined with the probability of rainfall above each\nthreshold.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.5194\/nhess-18-1037-2018","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2018,4,4]],"date-time":"2018-04-04T08:02:23Z","timestamp":1522828943000},"page":"1037-1054","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":38,"title":["Regional rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence  using a centenary database"],"prefix":"10.5194","volume":"18","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7050-6160","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Teresa","family":"Vaz","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3953-673X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jos\u00e9 Lu\u00eds","family":"Z\u00eazere","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9674-0964","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Susana","family":"Pereira","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0883-8564","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"S\u00e9rgio Cruz","family":"Oliveira","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1036-6271","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ricardo A. C.","family":"Garcia","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0052-7112","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Iv\u00e2nia","family":"Quaresma","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"3145","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2018,4,4]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Aleotti, P.: A warning system for rainfall-induced shallow failures, Eng.\nGeol., 73, 247\u2013265, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.enggeo.2004.01.007, 2004.","DOI":"10.1016\/j.enggeo.2004.01.007"},{"key":"ref2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Beguer\u00eda, S.: Validation and Evaluation of Predictive Models in Hazard\nAssessment and Risk Management, Nat. 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