{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,10]],"date-time":"2026-03-10T04:32:58Z","timestamp":1773117178243,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":39,"publisher":"Copernicus GmbH","issue":"7","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2019,7,18]],"date-time":"2019-07-18T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1563408000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100002347","name":"Bundesministerium f\u00fcr Bildung und Forschung","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["FKZ 13N13196"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["FKZ 13N13196"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100002347","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci."],"abstract":"<jats:p>Abstract. The consideration of uncertainties in flood risk\nassessment has received increasing attention over the last 2 decades.\nHowever, the assessment is not reported in practice due to the lack of best\npractices and too wide uncertainty bounds. We present a method to constrain\nthe model roughness based on measured water levels and reduce the\nuncertainty bounds of a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model. Results show\nthat the maximum uncertainty in roughness generated an uncertainty bound in\nthe water level of 1.26\u2009m (90\u2009% confidence interval) and by constraining\nroughness, the bounds can be reduced as much as 0.92\u2009m.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.5194\/nhess-19-1445-2019","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2019,7,18]],"date-time":"2019-07-18T02:11:05Z","timestamp":1563415865000},"page":"1445-1457","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":20,"title":["Reducing uncertainties in flood inundation outputs of a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model by constraining roughness"],"prefix":"10.5194","volume":"19","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3586-6616","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Punit Kumar","family":"Bhola","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Jorge","family":"Leandro","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4620-575X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Markus","family":"Disse","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"3145","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,7,18]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref1","unstructured":"Arcement, G. J. and Schneider, V. R.: Guide for selecting manning's\nroughness coefficients for natural channels and flood plains, Water-Supply\npaper 2339, United States Department of Transportation, Denver, USA, 38\u00a0pp., 1989."},{"key":"ref2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Aronica, G., Hankin, B., and Beven, K.: Uncertainty and equifinality in\ncalibrating distributed roughness coefficients in a flood propagation model\nwith limited data, Adv. Water Resour., 22, 349\u2013365,\nhttps:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/S0309-1708(98)00017-7, 1998.","DOI":"10.1016\/S0309-1708(98)00017-7"},{"key":"ref3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Bach, P. M., Rauch, W., Mikkelsen, P. S., McCarthy, D. T., and Deletic, A.: A\ncritical review of integrated urban water modelling \u2013 urban drainage and\nbeyond, Environ. Modell. Softw., 54, 88\u2013107,\nhttps:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.envsoft.2013.12.018, 2014.","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envsoft.2013.12.018"},{"key":"ref4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Bales, J. D. and Wagner, C. R.: Sources of Uncertainty in flood inundation\nmaps, J. Flood Risk Manag., 2, 139\u2013147,\nhttps:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/j.1753-318X.2009.01029.x, 2009.","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1753-318X.2009.01029.x"},{"key":"ref5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Bates, P. D., Pappenberger, F., and Romanowicz, R. J.: Uncertainty in flood\ninundation modelling, in: Applied uncertainty analysis for flood risk\nmanagement, edited by: Beven, K. and Hall, J., Imperial College Press,\nLondon, UK, 232\u2013269, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1142\/9781848162716_0010, 2014.","DOI":"10.1142\/9781848162716_0010"},{"key":"ref6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Beven, K.: A manifesto for the equifinality thesis, J. Hydrol., 320, 18\u201336,\nhttps:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.jhydrol.2005.07.007, 2006.","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhydrol.2005.07.007"},{"key":"ref7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Beven, K. J., Almeida, S., Aspinall, W. P., Bates, P. D., Blazkova, S., Borgomeo, E., Freer, J., Goda, K., Hall, J. W., Phillips, J. C., Simpson, M., Smith, P. J., Stephenson, D. B., Wagener, T., Watson, M., and Wilkins, K. L.: Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment \u2013 Part 1: A review of different natural hazard areas, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2741\u20132768, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5194\/nhess-18-2741-2018, 2018.","DOI":"10.5194\/nhess-18-2741-2018"},{"key":"ref8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Bhola, P. K., Bhavna, N., Leandro, J., Rao, S. N., and Disse, M.: Flood\ninundation forecasts using validation data generated with the assistance of\ncomputer vision, J. Hydroinform., 21, 240\u2013256, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2166\/hydro.2018.044, 2018a.","DOI":"10.2166\/hydro.2018.044"},{"key":"ref9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Bhola, P. K., Leandro, J., and Disse, M.: Framework for offline flood inundation\nforecasts for two-dimensional hydrodynamic models, Geosciences, 8, 346,\nhttps:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/geosciences8090346, 2018b.","DOI":"10.3390\/geosciences8090346"},{"key":"ref10","unstructured":"Bhola, P. K, Ginting, B. M., Leandro, J., Broich, K., Mundani, R. P., and Disse,\nM.: Model parameter uncertainty of a 2-D hydrodynamic model for the\nassessment of disaster resilience, EnviroInfo, Garching, Munich, 5\u20137\nSeptember 2018, 2018c."},{"key":"ref11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Bhola, P. K., Leandro, J., and Disse, M.: Hazard maps with differentiated exceedance probability for flood impact assessment, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5194\/nhess-2019-158, in review, 2019.","DOI":"10.5194\/nhess-2019-158-supplement"},{"key":"ref12","unstructured":"Brunner, G. W.: HEC-RAS River Analysis System Hydraulic Reference Manual,\nReport for US Army Corps of Engineers, Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC),\nDavis, CA, USA, 547\u00a0pp., 2010."},{"key":"ref13","unstructured":"Chow, V. T.: Development of uniform flow and its formulas, in: Open-channel\nhydraulics, McGraw-Hill Book Company, edited by: Harmer, D. E., USA,\n89\u2013114, 1959."},{"key":"ref14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Disse, M., Konnerth, I., Bhola, P. K., and Leandro, J.:\nUnsicherheitsabsch\u00e4tzung f\u00fcr die Berechnung von Dynamischen\n\u00dcberschwemmungskarten \u2013 Fallstudie Kulmbach, in: Vorsorgender und\nnachsorgender Hochwasserschutz, edited by: Heimerl, S., Springer Vieweg,\nWiesbaden, Germany,\n350\u2013357, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/978-3-658-21839-3_50, 2018.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-658-21839-3_50"},{"key":"ref15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Djordjevi\u0107, S., Vojinovi\u0107, Z., Dawson, R., and Savi\u0107, D. A.:\nUncertainties in flood modelling in urban areas, in: Applied uncertainty\nanalysis for flood risk management, edited by: Beven, K. and Hall, J.,\nImperial College Press, London, UK, 297\u2013334,\nhttps:\/\/doi.org\/10.1142\/9781848162716_0012, 2014.","DOI":"10.1142\/9781848162716_0012"},{"key":"ref16","unstructured":"Faig, W. and Kahmen, H.: Differential levelling, in: Surveying, edited by:\nKahmen, H. and Faig, W., De Gruyter, Berlin, Germany, 321\u2013386, 2012."},{"key":"ref17","unstructured":"Hagemeier-Klose, M.: Results of formative evaluation of information tools in\nflood risk communication, final report on formative evaluation \u2013 EU-Life\nproject FloodScan, Technical University of Munich, Germany, 14\u00a0pp., 2007."},{"key":"ref18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Hall, J. W., Tarantola, S., Bates, P. D., and Horritt, M. S.: Distributed\nsensitivity analysis of flood inundation model calibration, J. Hyd. Eng.,\n131, 117\u2013126, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1061\/(ASCE)0733-9429(2005)131:2(117), 2005.","DOI":"10.1061\/(ASCE)0733-9429(2005)131:2(117)"},{"key":"ref19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Henonin, J., Russo, B., Mark, O., and Gourbesville, P.: Real-time Urban Flood\nForecasting and Modelling \u2013 A State of the Art, J. Hydroinform., 15,\n717\u2013736, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2166\/hydro.2013.132, 2013.","DOI":"10.2166\/hydro.2013.132"},{"key":"ref20","unstructured":"Hof: Gebiet des Mains:\navailable at: https:\/\/www.wwa-ho.bayern.de\/hochwasser\/hochwasserereignisse\/januar2011\/main\/index.htm,\nlast access: 27\u00a0March\u00a02019, 2011."},{"key":"ref21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Horritt, M. S. and Bates, P. D.: Evaluation of 1-D and 2-D numerical models for\npredicting river flood inundation, J. Hydrol., 268, 87\u201399,\nhttps:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/S0022-1694(02)00121-X, 2002.","DOI":"10.1016\/S0022-1694(02)00121-X"},{"key":"ref22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Hunter, N. M., Bates, P. D., Horritt, M. S., and Wilson, M. D.: Simple\nspatially-distributed models for predicting flood inundation: A review,\nGeomorphology, 90, 208\u2013225, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.geomorph.2006.10.021,\n2007.","DOI":"10.1016\/j.geomorph.2006.10.021"},{"key":"ref23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Jung, Y. and Merwade, V.: Uncertainty quantification in flood inundation\nmapping using generalized likelihood uncertainty estimate and sensitivity\nanalysis, J. Hydrol. Eng., 17, 507\u2013520,\nhttps:\/\/doi.org\/10.1061\/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000476, 2012.","DOI":"10.1061\/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000476"},{"key":"ref24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Leandro, J., Djordjevi\u0107, S., Chen, A. S., Savi\u0107, D. A., and\nStani\u0107, M.: Calibration of a 1-D\/1-D urban flood model using 1-D\/2-D model\nresults in the absence of field data, J. Water Sci. Tech., 64, 1016\u20131024,\nhttps:\/\/doi.org\/10.2166\/wst.2011.467, 2011.","DOI":"10.2166\/wst.2011.467"},{"key":"ref25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Matott, L. S., Babendreier, J. E., and Purucker, S. T.: Evaluating uncertainty\nin integrated environmental models: A review of concepts and tools, Water\nResour. Res., 45, W06421, 1\u201314, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1029\/2008WR007301, 2009.","DOI":"10.1029\/2008WR007301"},{"key":"ref26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Merwade, V., Olivera, F., Arabi, M., and Edleman, S.: Uncertainty in flood\ninundation mapping: Current issues and future directions, J. Hydrol. Eng., 13,\n608\u2013620, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1061\/(ASCE)1084-0699(2008)13:7(608), 2008.","DOI":"10.1061\/(ASCE)1084-0699(2008)13:7(608)"},{"key":"ref27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Molinari, D., Ballio, F., Handmer, J., and Menoni, S.: On the modeling of\nsignificance for flood damage assessment, Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct., 10,\n381\u2013391, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.ijdrr.2014.10.009, 2014.","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijdrr.2014.10.009"},{"key":"ref28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Musall, M., Oberle, P., and Nestmann, F.: Hydraulic modelling, in: Flood risk\nassessment and management: How to specify hydrological loads, their\nconsequences and uncertainties, edited by: Schumann, A. H., Springer,\nDordrecht, Netherlands, 187\u2013209,\nhttps:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/978-90-481-9917-4_9, 2011.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-90-481-9917-4_9"},{"key":"ref29","unstructured":"N\u00e9elz, S. and Pender, G.: Desktop review of 2D hydraulic modelling packages, Science Report\nSC080035, Joint UK Defra\/Environment Agency Flood and Coastal Erosion, Risk Management R&amp;amp;D\nProgram, 63 pp., 2009."},{"key":"ref30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Oubennaceur, K., Chokmani, K., Nastev, M., Tanguy, M., and Raymond, S.:\nUncertainty analysis of a two-dimensional hydraulic model, Water, 10, 272,\nhttps:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/w10030272, 2018.","DOI":"10.3390\/w10030272"},{"key":"ref31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Pappenberger, F. and Beven, K. J.: Ignorance is bliss: 7 reasons not to use uncertainty analysis, Water\nResour. Res., 42, W05302, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1029\/2005WR004820, 2006.","DOI":"10.1029\/2005WR004820"},{"key":"ref32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Pappenberger, F., Beven, K., Horritt, M., and Blazkova, S.: Uncertainty in\nthe calibration of effective roughness parameters in hec-ras using\ninundation and downstream level observations, J. Hydrol., 302, 46\u201369,\nhttps:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.jhydrol.2004.06.036, 2005.","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhydrol.2004.06.036"},{"key":"ref33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Romanowicz, R. and Beven, K.: Estimation of flood inundation probabilities\nas conditioned on event inundation maps, Water Resour. Res., 39, 3,\nhttps:\/\/doi.org\/10.1029\/2001WR001056, 2003.","DOI":"10.1029\/2001WR001056"},{"key":"ref34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Schumann, A. H., Wang, Y., and Dietrich, J.: Framing uncertainties in flood\nforecasting with ensembles, in: Flood risk assessment and management: How to\nspecify hydrological loads, their consequences and uncertainties, edited by:\nSchumann, A. H., Springer, Dordrecht, Netherlands, 53\u201376,\nhttps:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/978-90-481-9917-4_4, 2011.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-90-481-9917-4_4"},{"key":"ref35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Thieken, A. H., Kienzler, S., Kreibich, H., Kuhlicke, C., Kunz, M., M\u00fchr,\nB., M\u00fcller, M., Otto, A., Petrow, T., Pisi, S., and Schr\u00f6ter, K.:\nReview of the flood risk management system in Germany after the major flood\nin 2013, Ecol. Soc., 21, 1\u201312, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5751\/ES-08547-210251,\n2016.","DOI":"10.5751\/ES-08547-210251"},{"key":"ref36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Uusitalo, L., Lehikoinen, A., Helle, I., and Myrberg, K.: An overview of\nmethods to evaluate uncertainty of deterministic models in decision support,\nEnviron. Modell. Softw., 63, 24\u201331,\nhttps:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.envsoft.2014.09.017, 2015.","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envsoft.2014.09.017"},{"key":"ref37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Wagener, T. and Gupta, H. V.: Model identification for hydrological\nforecasting under uncertainty, Environ. Res. Ris. Assess., 19, 378\u2013387,\nhttps:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s00477-005-0006-5, 2005.","DOI":"10.1007\/s00477-005-0006-5"},{"key":"ref38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Werner, M., Blazkova, S., and Petr, J.: Spatially distributed observations in\nconstraining inundation modelling uncertainties, Hydrol. Process., 19,\n3081\u20133096, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/hyp.5833, 2005a.","DOI":"10.1002\/hyp.5833"},{"key":"ref39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Werner, M. G. F., Hunter, N. M., and Bates, P. D.: Identifiability of\ndistributed floodplain roughness values in flood extent estimation, J.\nHydrol., 314, 139\u2013157, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.jhydrol.2005.03.012, 2005b.","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhydrol.2005.03.012"}],"container-title":["Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/nhess.copernicus.org\/articles\/19\/1445\/2019\/nhess-19-1445-2019.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,1]],"date-time":"2025-02-01T03:38:42Z","timestamp":1738381122000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/nhess.copernicus.org\/articles\/19\/1445\/2019\/"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2019,7,18]]},"references-count":39,"journal-issue":{"issue":"7","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5194\/nhess-19-1445-2019","relation":{"has-preprint":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.5194\/nhess-2018-369","asserted-by":"subject"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.5194\/nhess-2018-369","asserted-by":"object"}],"has-review":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.5194\/nhess-2018-369-RC1","asserted-by":"subject"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.5194\/nhess-2018-369-AC2","asserted-by":"subject"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.5194\/nhess-2018-369-RC2","asserted-by":"subject"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.5194\/nhess-2018-369-AC1","asserted-by":"subject"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.5194\/nhess-2018-369-AC1","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.5194\/nhess-2018-369-AC2","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.5194\/nhess-2018-369-RC2","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.5194\/nhess-2018-369-RC1","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["1684-9981"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1684-9981","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2019,7,18]]}}}