{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,28]],"date-time":"2026-02-28T07:01:23Z","timestamp":1772262083444,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":37,"publisher":"Copernicus GmbH","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,3,30]],"date-time":"2020-03-30T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1585526400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001871","name":"Funda\u00e7\u00e3o para a Ci\u00eancia e a Tecnologia","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["WaterJPI\/0004\/2014"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["WaterJPI\/0004\/2014"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001871","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001871","name":"Funda\u00e7\u00e3o para a Ci\u00eancia e a Tecnologia","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["CEECIND\/00027\/2017"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["CEECIND\/00027\/2017"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001871","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001871","name":"Funda\u00e7\u00e3o para a Ci\u00eancia e a Tecnologia","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["PTDC\/GES-AMB\/30052\/2017"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["PTDC\/GES-AMB\/30052\/2017"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001871","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci."],"abstract":"<jats:p>Abstract. A large fraction of extreme precipitation and flood events across western Europe are triggered by atmospheric rivers\u00a0(ARs). The association between\u00a0ARs and extreme precipitation days over the Iberian Peninsula has been well documented for western river basins. Since ARs are often associated with high impact weather, it is important to\nstudy their medium-range predictability. Here we perform such an assessment\nusing the ECMWF ensemble forecasts up to 15\u2009d for events where ARs made\nlandfall in the western Iberian Peninsula during the winters spanning between\u00a02012\u20132013 and\u00a02015\u20132016. Vertically integrated horizontal water vapor transport (IVT) and precipitation from the 51\u00a0ensemble members of the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System\u00a0(IFS) ensemble\u00a0(ENS) were processed over a domain including western Europe and the contiguous North Atlantic Ocean. Metrics concerning AR\u00a0location, intensity, and orientation were computed, in order to compare the predictive skill (for different prediction lead times) of IVT and precipitation. We considered several regional boxes over western Iberia, where the presence of\u00a0ARs is detected in analysis\/forecasts, enabling the construction of contingency tables and\nprobabilistic evaluation for further objective verification of forecast\naccuracy. Our results indicate that the ensemble forecasts have skill in\ndetecting upcoming AR\u00a0events, which can be particularly useful to better\npredict potential hydrometeorological extremes. We also characterized how\nthe ENS dispersion and confidence curves change with increasing forecast\nlead times for each sub-domain. The probabilistic evaluation, using receiver operating characteristic (ROC)\nanalysis, shows that for short lead times precipitation forecasts are more\naccurate than IVT forecasts, while for longer lead times this reverses\n(\u223c10\u2009d). Furthermore, we show that this reversal occurs for shorter lead times in areas where the AR contribution is more relevant for winter precipitation totals (e.g.,\u00a0northwestern Iberia).<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.5194\/nhess-20-877-2020","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,3,30]],"date-time":"2020-03-30T03:46:51Z","timestamp":1585540011000},"page":"877-888","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":8,"title":["Predictive skill for atmospheric rivers  in the western Iberian Peninsula"],"prefix":"10.5194","volume":"20","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3129-7233","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Alexandre M.","family":"Ramos","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0296-4204","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Pedro M.","family":"Sousa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0643-2643","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Emanuel","family":"Dutra","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4183-9852","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ricardo M.","family":"Trigo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"3145","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020,3,30]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Blamey, R. 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J.:\nAssessing the climate-scale variability of atmospheric rivers affecting western North America, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 7900\u20137908,\nhttps:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/2017gl074175, 2017.","DOI":"10.1002\/2017GL074175"},{"key":"ref7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Gimeno, L., Dominguez, F., Nieto, R., Trigo, R. M., Drumond, A., Reason, C., and Marengo, J.: Major Mechanisms of Atmospheric Moisture Transport and Their Role in Extreme Precipitation Events, Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour., 41,\n117\u2013141, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1146\/annurev-environ-110615-085558, 2016.","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev-environ-110615-085558"},{"key":"ref8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Guan, B. and Waliser, D. E.: Detection of atmospheric rivers: Evaluation and\napplication of an algorithm for global studies, J. Geophys. 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Lett., 43, 11852\u201311858, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/2016GL071320, 2016.","DOI":"10.1002\/2016GL071320"},{"key":"ref17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Lavers, D. A., Zsoter, E., Richardson, D. S., and Pappenberger, F.: An\nAssessment of the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index for Water Vapor Transport during Boreal Winter, Weather Forecast., 32, 1667\u20131674,\nhttps:\/\/doi.org\/10.1175\/WAF-D-17-0073.1, 2017.","DOI":"10.1175\/WAF-D-17-0073.1"},{"key":"ref18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Lavers, D. A., Richardson, D. S., Ramos, A. M., Zsoter, E., Pappenberger, F.,\nTrigo, R. M.: Earlier awareness of extreme winter precipitation across the\nwestern Iberian Peninsula, Meteorol. Appl., 25, 622\u2013628, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/met.1727, 2018a.","DOI":"10.1002\/met.1727"},{"key":"ref19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Lavers, D. A., Rodwell, M. J., Richardson, D. S., Ralph, F. M., Doyle, J. D.,\nReynolds, C. A., Tallapragada, V., and Pappenberger, F.: The Gauging and Modeling of Rivers in the Sky, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 7828\u20137834, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1029\/2018GL079019, 2018b.","DOI":"10.1029\/2018GL079019"},{"key":"ref20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Mahoney, K., Jackson, D. L., Neiman, P., Hughes, M., Darby, L., Wick, G.,\nWhite, A., Sukovich, E., and Cifelli, R.: Understanding the Role of Atmospheric Rivers in Heavy Precipitation in the Southeast United States,\nMon. Weather Rev., 144, 1617\u20131632, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1175\/MWR-D-15-0279.1, 2016.","DOI":"10.1175\/MWR-D-15-0279.1"},{"key":"ref21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Martin, A., Ralph, F. M., Demirdjian, R., DeHaan, L., Weihs, R., Helly, J.,\nReynolds, D., Iacobellis, S.: Evaluation of Atmospheric River Predictions by\nthe WRF Model Using Aircraft and Regional Mesonet Observations of Orographic\nPrecipitation and Its Forcing, J. Hydrometeorol., 19, 1097\u20131113,\nhttps:\/\/doi.org\/10.1175\/JHM-D-17-0098.1, 2018.","DOI":"10.1175\/JHM-D-17-0098.1"},{"key":"ref22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Miller, D. K., Miniat, C. F., Wooten, R. M., and Barros, A. P.: An Expanded\nInvestigation of Atmospheric Rivers in the Southern Appalachian Mountains and Their Connection to Landslides, Atmosphere, 10, 71, 2019.","DOI":"10.3390\/atmos10020071"},{"key":"ref23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Nayak, M. A., Villarini, G., and Lavers, D. A.: On the skill of numerical\nweather prediction models to forecast atmospheric rivers over the central\nUnited States, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 4354\u20134362,\nhttps:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/2014GL060299, 2016.","DOI":"10.1002\/2014GL060299"},{"key":"ref24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Ralph, F. M., Iacobellis, S. F., Neiman, P. J., Cordeira, J. M., Spackman, J. R., Waliser, D. E., Wick, G. A., White, A. B., and Fairall, C.: Dropsonde observations of total water vapor transport within North Pacific atmospheric rivers, J. Hydrometeorol., 18, 2577\u20132596, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1175\/JHM-D-17-0036.1, 2017.","DOI":"10.1175\/JHM-D-17-0036.1"},{"key":"ref25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Ralph, F. M., Dettinger, M. D., Cairns, M. M., Galarneau, T. J., and Eylander, J.: Defining \u201catmospheric river\u201d: How the Glossary of Meteorology helped resolve a debate, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 99, 837\u2013839,\nhttps:\/\/doi.org\/10.1175\/BAMS-D-17-0157.1, 2018.","DOI":"10.1175\/BAMS-D-17-0157.1"},{"key":"ref26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Ralph, F. M., Rutz, J. J., Cordeira, J. M., Dettinger, M., Anderson, M. D.,\nReynolds, M., Schick, C., and Smallcomb, L. J.: A Scale to Characterize the\nStrength and Impacts of Atmospheric Rivers, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 100,\n269\u2013289, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1175\/BAMS-D-18-0023.1, 2019.","DOI":"10.1175\/BAMS-D-18-0023.1"},{"key":"ref27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Ramos, A. M., Trigo, R. M., Liberato, M. L. R., and Tome, R.: Daily precipitation extreme events in the Iberian Peninsula and its association\nwith Atmospheric Rivers, J. Hydrometeorol., 16, 579\u2013597,\nhttps:\/\/doi.org\/10.1175\/JHM-D-14-0103.1, 2015.","DOI":"10.1175\/JHM-D-14-0103.1"},{"key":"ref28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Ramos, A. M., Nieto, R., Tom\u00e9, R., Gimeno, L., Trigo, R. M., Liberato, M. L. R., and Lavers, D. A.: Atmospheric rivers moisture sources from a Lagrangian perspective, Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 371\u2013384,\nhttps:\/\/doi.org\/10.5194\/esd-7-371-2016, 2016.","DOI":"10.5194\/esd-7-371-2016"},{"key":"ref29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Ramos, A. M., Martins, M. J., Tom\u00e9, R., and Trigo, R. M.: Extreme\nPrecipitation Events in Summer in the Iberian Peninsula and Its Relationship\nwith Atmospheric Rivers, Front. Earth Sci., 6, 110, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/feart.2018.00110, 2018.","DOI":"10.3389\/feart.2018.00110"},{"key":"ref30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Ramos, A. M., Blamey, R. C., Algarra, I., Nieto, R., Gimeno, L., Tom\u00e9, R., Reason, C. J., and Trigo, R. M., From Amazonia to southern Africa:\natmospheric moisture transport through low-level jets and atmospheric rivers, Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci., 1436, 217\u2013230, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/nyas.13960, 2019.","DOI":"10.1111\/nyas.13960"},{"key":"ref31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Reynolds, C. A., Doyle, J. D., Ralph, F. M., and Demirdjian, R.: Adjoint\nSensitivity of North Pacific Atmospheric River Forecasts, Mon. Weather Rev.,\n147, 1871\u20131897, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1175\/MWR-D-18-0347.1, 2019.","DOI":"10.1175\/MWR-D-18-0347.1"},{"key":"ref32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Rutz, J. J., Steenburgh, W. J., and Ralph, F. M.: Climatological characteristics of atmospheric rivers and their inland penetration over the\nWestern United States, Mon. Weather Rev., 142, 905\u2013921,\nhttps:\/\/doi.org\/10.1175\/mwr-d-13-00168.1, 2019.","DOI":"10.1175\/MWR-D-13-00168.1"},{"key":"ref33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Sodemann, H. and Stohl, A.: Moisture Origin and Meridional Transport in\nAtmospheric Rivers and Their Association with Multiple Cyclones, Mon. Weather\nRev., 141, 2850\u20132868, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1175\/MWR-D-12-00256.1, 2013.","DOI":"10.1175\/MWR-D-12-00256.1"},{"key":"ref34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Valenzuela, R. A. and Garreaud, R. D.: Extreme Daily Rainfall in Central-Southern Chile and Its Relationship with Low-Level Horizontal Water\nVapor Fluxes, J. Hydrometeorol., 20, 1829\u20131850, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1175\/JHM-D-19-0036.1, 2019.","DOI":"10.1175\/JHM-D-19-0036.1"},{"key":"ref35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Viale, M., Valenzuela, R., Garreaud, R. D., and Ralph, F. M.: Impacts of\nAtmospheric Rivers on Precipitation in Southern South America, J. Hydrometeorol., 19, 1671\u20131687, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1175\/JHM-D-18-0006.1, 2018.","DOI":"10.1175\/JHM-D-18-0006.1"},{"key":"ref36","unstructured":"Wilks, D. S.: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, 2nd\u00a0Edn., Academic Press, London, 2006."},{"key":"ref37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Zsoter, E., Pappenberger, F., and Richardson, D.: Sensitivity of model climate to sampling configurations and the impact on the Extreme Forecast\nIndex, Meteorol. Appl., 22, 236\u2013247, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/met.1447, 2014.","DOI":"10.1002\/met.1447"}],"container-title":["Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/nhess.copernicus.org\/articles\/20\/877\/2020\/nhess-20-877-2020.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,31]],"date-time":"2025-01-31T20:57:05Z","timestamp":1738357025000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/nhess.copernicus.org\/articles\/20\/877\/2020\/"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2020,3,30]]},"references-count":37,"journal-issue":{"issue":"3","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5194\/nhess-20-877-2020","relation":{"has-preprint":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.5194\/nhess-2019-317","asserted-by":"subject"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.5194\/nhess-2019-317","asserted-by":"object"}],"has-review":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.5194\/nhess-2019-317-RC1","asserted-by":"subject"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.5194\/nhess-2019-317-AC1","asserted-by":"subject"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.5194\/nhess-2019-317-RC2","asserted-by":"subject"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.5194\/nhess-2019-317-AC2","asserted-by":"subject"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.5194\/nhess-2019-317-RC2","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.5194\/nhess-2019-317-RC1","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.5194\/nhess-2019-317-AC1","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.5194\/nhess-2019-317-AC2","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["1684-9981"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1684-9981","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2020,3,30]]}}}