{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,13]],"date-time":"2026-03-13T07:16:03Z","timestamp":1773386163741,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":68,"publisher":"Copernicus GmbH","issue":"8","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,8,23]],"date-time":"2021-08-23T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1629676800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci."],"abstract":"<jats:p>Abstract. Estuaries are coastal systems particularly vulnerable to climate change. Within these systems, agriculture is one of the most potentially affected\nsectors. This paper proposes a risk assessment approach for helping the decision-making process at a local level, addressing two risks that affect\nagricultural areas located in estuarine margins: the unavailability of freshwater for irrigation resulting from the upstream propagation of\nestuarine brackish water during droughts and land inundation by high water levels associated with high tides and storm surges. For each risk,\nquantitative consequence descriptors are proposed to support risk level determination and evaluation through a continuous consequence\u2013probability\ndiagram. The approach applicability is discussed through its application to the Lez\u00edria Grande de Vila Franca de Xira, located in the Tagus\nEstuary (Portugal). Results indicate that the approach is appropriate to support risk owners in taking actions to mitigate the risk. Examples of\nrisk control measures for the risks addressed are presented. The main strengths of the proposed approach are its flexibility to be adapted to local conditions and updated through time, as well as the ease of its application by the risk owner.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.5194\/nhess-21-2503-2021","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,8,23]],"date-time":"2021-08-23T07:54:43Z","timestamp":1629705283000},"page":"2503-2521","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":10,"title":["Flood and drought risk assessment for agricultural  areas (Tagus Estuary, Portugal)"],"prefix":"10.5194","volume":"21","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9801-6008","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Paula","family":"Freire","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Marta","family":"Rodrigues","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4667-1945","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Andr\u00e9 B.","family":"Fortunato","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Alberto","family":"Freitas","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"3145","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,8,23]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Ale, B., Burnap, P., and Slater, D.:\nOn the origin of PCDS\u00a0\u2013 (Probability consequence diagrams),\nSafety Sci.,\n72, 229\u2013239, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.ssci.2014.09.003, 2015.","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ssci.2014.09.003"},{"key":"ref2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Aleksandrova, M., Gain, A. 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