{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,1]],"date-time":"2025-10-01T18:01:27Z","timestamp":1759341687356,"version":"3.38.0"},"reference-count":40,"publisher":"SAGE Publications","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2016,9,20]],"date-time":"2016-09-20T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1474329600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/page\/policies\/text-and-data-mining-license"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["journals.sagepub.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Tumori"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2016,11]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec><jats:title>Aims and Background<\/jats:title><jats:p> Bayesian survival analysis was applied to assess the long-term survival and probability of death due to breast cancer (BC) in Girona, the Spanish region with the highest BC incidence. <\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p> A Bayesian autoregressive model was implemented to compare survival indicators between the periods 1985\u20131994 and 1995\u20132004. We assessed the long-term excess hazard of death, relative survival (RS), and crude probability of death due to BC (P<jats:sub>BC<\/jats:sub>) up to 20 years after BC diagnosis, reporting the 95% credible intervals (CI) of these indicators. <\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p> Patients diagnosed from 1995 onwards showed lower 20-year excess hazards of death than those diagnosed earlier (RS during 1985\u20131994: local stage: 76.6%; regional stage: 44.9%; RS during 1995\u20132004: local stage: 85.2%; regional stage: 57.0%). The P<jats:sub>BC<\/jats:sub> after 20 years of BC diagnosis for patients diagnosed in 1995 and after might reach 14.4% (95% CI: 8.9%\u201321.2%) in local stage and 41.0% (95% CI: 36.1%\u201347.1%) in regional stage. <\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title><jats:p> The method presented could be useful when dealing with population-based survival data from a small region. Better survival prospects were found in patients diagnosed after 1994, although we detected a non-decreasing long-term excess hazard of death, suggesting that these patients have higher mortality than the general population even 10 years after the diagnosis of BC. <\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.5301\/tj.5000545","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2016,9,20]],"date-time":"2016-09-20T12:50:52Z","timestamp":1474375852000},"page":"555-561","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/sage-journals-update-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":5,"title":["Estimating Long-Term Crude Probability of Death among Young Breast Cancer Patients: A Bayesian Approach"],"prefix":"10.1177","volume":"102","author":[{"given":"Ramon","family":"Cl\u00e8ries","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Catalan Institute of Oncology, Plan for Oncology of the Catalonian Government, IDIBELL, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat - Spain"},{"name":"Department of Clinical Sciences, University of Barcelona, Barcelona - 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Spain"},{"name":"Department of Medical Oncology, Catalan Institute of Oncology, Doctor Josep Trueta University Hospital, Girona - Spain"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"179","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2016,9,20]]},"reference":[{"key":"bibr1-tj.5000545","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ejca.2012.12.027"},{"key":"bibr2-tj.5000545","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/jnci\/djp358"},{"key":"bibr3-tj.5000545","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/annonc\/mdq082"},{"key":"bibr4-tj.5000545","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/EDE.0b013e31828b0866"},{"key":"bibr5-tj.5000545","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/annonc\/mdl303"},{"key":"bibr6-tj.5000545","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1470-2045(13)70546-1"},{"key":"bibr7-tj.5000545","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ijc.27895"},{"key":"bibr8-tj.5000545","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1200\/JCO.2004.04.067"},{"key":"bibr9-tj.5000545","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1097-0142(19990515)85:10<2183::AID-CNCR12>3.0.CO;2-K"},{"key":"bibr10-tj.5000545","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.286.6380.1777"},{"key":"bibr11-tj.5000545","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1054\/bjoc.2000.1616"},{"key":"bibr12-tj.5000545","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/annonc\/mdn791"},{"key":"bibr13-tj.5000545","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0959-8049(02)00486-0"},{"key":"bibr14-tj.5000545","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1097-0142(19960415)77:8<1459::AID-CNCR6>3.0.CO;2-7"},{"key":"bibr15-tj.5000545","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/annonc\/mdt424"},{"key":"bibr16-tj.5000545","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ijc.20655"},{"key":"bibr17-tj.5000545","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1200\/JCO.2007.11.9081"},{"key":"bibr18-tj.5000545","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jacc.2010.08.638"},{"key":"bibr19-tj.5000545","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/annonc\/mdu383"},{"key":"bibr20-tj.5000545","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.canep.2013.03.019"},{"key":"bibr21-tj.5000545","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1200\/JCO.2009.25.9697"},{"key":"bibr22-tj.5000545","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10552-014-0337-y"},{"key":"bibr23-tj.5000545","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/EDE.0000000000000283"},{"key":"bibr24-tj.5000545","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/00008469-199610000-00004"},{"journal-title":"Statistical Yearbook of Catalonia","year":"2015","author":"IDESCAT - 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