{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,30]],"date-time":"2026-06-30T11:45:02Z","timestamp":1782819902477,"version":"3.54.5"},"reference-count":31,"publisher":"Ubiquity Press, Ltd.","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,10]],"date-time":"2025-12-10T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1765324800000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003593","name":"CNPq","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["310749\/2022-0"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["310749\/2022-0"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003593","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100004901","name":"FAPEMIG","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["APQ-03291-18"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["APQ-03291-18"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100004901","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["gh"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Background: Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) remains a significant public health concern in middle- to low-income countries. Despite advancements in healthcare access and public health measures in Brazil, future projections of RHD burden are essential to guide policy-making. Thus, we projected the national and regional burden of RHD in Brazil through 2050.\nMethods: Annual prevalence counts and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for RHD from 2000 to 2021 were extracted from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) dataset for 10-year age brackets (5\u201374 years). Age-standardized prevalence (asPR) and DALYs rates (asDALYs) per 100,000 were calculated nationally and regionally. Bayesian age-period-cohort models were used to project trends through 2050, with results reported as medians (25th, 75th percentiles) and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs).\nResults: From 2000 to 2021, Brazil\u2019s population grew by 27%. Nationally, the asPR declined slightly from 1,503 to 1,495 per 100,000 [EAPC: \u20130.04% (95% CI: \u20130.05, \u20130.03)], with reductions observed in most regions. However, increases were noted in the North [EAPC: 0.14% (95% CI: 0.13, 0.15)] and Northeast [EAPC: 0.02% (95% CI: 0.01, 0.03)]. Males experienced greater reductions [EAPC: \u20130.16% (95% CI: \u20130.19, \u20130.13)] compared to females, who showed a slight increase [EAPC: 0.05% (95% CI: 0.03, 0.07)]. Projections indicate that asPR will decline nationally to 1,418 per 100,000 by 2050 [EAPC: \u20130.20% (95% CI: \u20130.20, \u20130.19)], with the South and Central West regions reducing the most.\nThe asDALY rates declined from 142 to 104 per 100,000 [EAPC: \u20131.58% (95% CI: \u20131.69, \u20131.46)] during 2000\u20132021, with all regions showing decreases, particularly the Southeast [EAPC: \u20131.83% (95% CI: \u20131.98, \u20131.69)]. Nationally, projections suggest further reductions to 75 per 100,000 by 2050 [EAPC: \u20131.17% (95% CI: \u20131.22, \u20131.11)].\nConclusion: The burden of RHD in Brazil has decreased nationally and regionally over recent decades. Projections suggest that these trends will continue.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.5334\/gh.1504","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,10]],"date-time":"2025-12-10T10:22:03Z","timestamp":1765362123000},"page":"110","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Bayesian Modeling to Project the National and Regional Burden of Rheumatic Heart Disease in Brazil Till 2050"],"prefix":"10.5334","volume":"20","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5116-5062","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Pedro Rafael Vieira","family":"De Oliveira Salerno","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0000-8917-9542","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Antoinette","family":"Cotton","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7781-2080","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Zhou","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0003-2058-1578","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Vaibhav","family":"Shah","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8484-1816","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Gabriel Tensol Rodrigues","family":"Pereira","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1122-7695","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Sadeer","family":"Al-Kindi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6798-2737","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Craig","family":"Sable","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2740-0042","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Antonio Luiz Pinho","family":"Ribeiro","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4963-355X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Andrea Z.","family":"Beaton","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4729-1461","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Salil V.","family":"Deo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5586-774X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Bruno Ramos","family":"Nascimento","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"3285","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,10]]},"reference":[{"issue":"2","key":"key20251210102157_B1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"179","DOI":"10.3390\/pathogens11020179","article-title":"Recent advances in the rheumatic fever and rheumatic heart disease continuum","volume":"11","year":"2022","journal-title":"Pathogens"},{"issue":"1","key":"key20251210102157_B2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"68","DOI":"10.4103\/apc.APC_135_17","article-title":"Prevention and control of rheumatic heart disease: overcoming core challenges in resource-poor environments","volume":"11","year":"2018","journal-title":"Ann Pediatr Cardiol"},{"issue":"13","key":"key20251210102157_B3","article-title":"Rheumatic heart disease is a neglected disease relative to its burden worldwide: findings from Global Burden of Disease 2019","volume":"11","year":"2022","journal-title":"J Am Heart Assoc"},{"issue":"25","key":"key20251210102157_B4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2350","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jacc.2023.11.007","article-title":"Global Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases and Risks Collaborators. Global burden of cardiovascular diseases and risks, 1990\u20132022","volume":"82","year":"2023","journal-title":"J Am Coll Cardiol"},{"issue":"2","key":"key20251210102157_B5","article-title":"Cardiovascular statistics \u2013 Brazil 2023","volume":"121","year":"2024","journal-title":"Arq Bras Cardiol"},{"key":"key20251210102157_B6","first-page":"100426","article-title":"Inequalities in unmet need for health care services and medications in Brazil: a decomposition analysis","volume":"19","year":"2023","journal-title":"Lancet Reg Health Am"},{"issue":"24","key":"key20251210102157_B7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1898","DOI":"10.1136\/heartjnl-2020-317663","article-title":"Excess of cardiovascular deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazilian capital cities","volume":"106","year":"2020","journal-title":"Heart"},{"issue":"1","key":"key20251210102157_B8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"302","DOI":"10.1186\/s12872-017-0725-9","article-title":"Medium-term outcomes of 78,808 patients after heart valve surgery in a middle-income country: a nationwide population-based study","volume":"17","year":"2017","journal-title":"BMC Cardiovasc Disord"},{"issue":"4","key":"key20251210102157_B9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"907","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jtcvs.2005.11.022","article-title":"Mortality related to cardiac surgery in Brazil, 2000\u20132003","volume":"131","year":"2006","journal-title":"J Thorac Cardiovasc Surg"},{"key":"key20251210102157_B10","first-page":"2133","volume-title":"Lancet","author":"GBD 2021 Diseases and Injuries Collaborators","year":"2024"},{"key":"key20251210102157_B11","unstructured":"Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). Global fertility, mortality, migration, and population forecasts 2017\u20132100 [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2024 Mar 25]. 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