{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,16]],"date-time":"2026-09-16T08:00:42Z","timestamp":1789545642115,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":29,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,7,14]],"date-time":"2024-07-14T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1720915200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003921","name":"Department of Health and Aged Care, Australian Government","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["Medical Research Future Fund (MRF1200535)"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["Medical Research Future Fund (MRF1200535)"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003921","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Medical Journal of Australia"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,7,15]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Objectives<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>To examine changes in multiple myeloma incidence and mortality rates during 1982\u20132018, and to estimate its incidence, mortality, and prevalence for 2019\u20132043.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Study design<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Population\u2010based statistical modelling study; analysis of and projections based on Australian Institute of Health and Welfare multiple myeloma incidence, mortality, and survival data.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Setting<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Australia, 1982\u20132018 (historical data) and projections to 2043.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Main outcome measures<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Changes in multiple myeloma incidence and mortality rates, 1982\u20132018, determined by joinpoint regression analysis (age\u2010standardised to 2021 Australian population); projection of rates to 2043 based on age\u2013period\u2013cohort models; estimated 5\u2010 and 30\u2010year prevalence of multiple myeloma (modified counting method).<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The incidence of multiple myeloma increased during 1982\u20132018 (eg, annual percentage change [APC], 2006\u20132018, 1.9%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.7\u20132.2%), but the mortality rate declined during 1990\u20132018 (APC, \u20130.4%; 95% CI, \u20130.5% to \u20130.2%). The age\u2010standardised incidence rate was projected to increase by 14.9% during 2018\u20132043, from 8.7 in 2018 to 10.0 (95% CI, 9.4\u201310.7) new cases per 100\u2009000 population in 2043; the mortality rate was projected to decline by 27.5%, from 4.0 to 2.9 (95% CI, 2.6\u20133.3) deaths per 100\u2009000 population. The annual number of people newly diagnosed with multiple myeloma was estimated to increase by 89.2%, from 2120 in 2018 to 4012 in 2043; the number of deaths from multiple myeloma was projected to increase by 31.7%, from 979 to 1289. The number of people living with multiple myeloma up to 30 years after initial diagnosis was projected to increase by 163%, from 10\u2009288 in 2018 to 27\u2009093 in 2043, including 13\u2009019 people (48.1%) diagnosed during the preceding five years.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Although the decline in the mortality rate was projected to continue, the projected increases in the incidence and prevalence of multiple myeloma in Australia over the next 25 years indicate that investment in prevention and early detection research, and planning for prolonged treatment and care, are needed.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.5694\/mja2.52366","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,7,14]],"date-time":"2024-07-14T11:03:34Z","timestamp":1720955014000},"page":"103-110","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":15,"title":["Multiple myeloma incidence, mortality, and prevalence estimates and projections, Australia, 1982\u20132043: a\u00a0statistical modelling study"],"prefix":"10.5694","volume":"221","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8902-6869","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Qingwei","family":"Luo","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"The Daffodil Centre, the University of Sydney  Sydney NSW"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Deanne","family":"Jenkin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The Daffodil Centre, the University of Sydney  Sydney NSW"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Marianne F","family":"Weber","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The Daffodil Centre, the University of Sydney  Sydney NSW"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Julia","family":"Steinberg","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The Daffodil Centre, the University of Sydney  Sydney NSW"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kate","family":"White","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The Daffodil Centre, the University of Sydney  Sydney NSW"},{"name":"Susan Wakil School of Nursing the University of Sydney  Sydney NSW"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0406-658X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Adam","family":"Irving","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Health Economics Monash University  Melbourne VIC"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hannah","family":"Rillstone","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Cancer Council NSW  Sydney NSW"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Anna","family":"Kelly","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The Daffodil Centre, the University of Sydney  Sydney NSW"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Karen","family":"Canfell","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The Daffodil Centre, the University of Sydney  Sydney NSW"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Eleonora","family":"Feletto","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The Daffodil Centre, the University of Sydney  Sydney NSW"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,7,14]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_9_1_1","first-page":"3","article-title":"Epidemiology, staging, and management of multiple myeloma","volume":"9","author":"Padala SA","year":"2021","journal-title":"Med Sci (Basel)"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12885-021-08280-y"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S2352-3026(22)00165-X"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.clml.2015.06.003"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMsr1606602"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_6_1","unstructured":"QuachH PrinceHM HarrisonS;Medical Scientific Advisory Group to Myeloma Australia. 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