{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,12]],"date-time":"2026-03-12T21:57:31Z","timestamp":1773352651011,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":39,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,18]],"date-time":"2024-08-18T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1723939200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000925","name":"National Health and Medical Research Council","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["#2016907"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["#2016907"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000925","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Medical Journal of Australia"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,19]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Objective<\/jats:title><jats:p>To estimate the number of people in Australia with long COVID by age group, and the associated medium term productivity and economic losses.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Study design<\/jats:title><jats:p>Modelling study: a susceptible\u2013exposed\u2013infected\u2013recovered (SEIR) model to estimate the number of people with long COVID over time following single infections, and a labour supply model to estimate productivity losses as a proportion of gross domestic product (GDP).<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Setting<\/jats:title><jats:p>Australia, 2022\u20132024.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Main outcome measures<\/jats:title><jats:p>Estimated number of people infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS\u2010CoV\u20102) during 2022\u20132023 (based on serosurvey data) who have long\u00a0COVID, 2022\u20132024, by age group; estimated GDP loss during 2022 caused by reduced labour supply attributable to long COVID.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>Our model projected that the number of people with long COVID following a single infection in 2022 would peak in September 2022, when 310\u2009341\u20131\u2009374\u2009805 people (1.2\u20135.4% of Australians) would have symptoms of long COVID, declining to 172\u2009530\u2013872\u2009799 people (0.7\u20133.4%) in December 2024, including 7902\u201330\u2009002 children aged 0\u20134 years (0.6\u20132.2%). The estimated mean labour loss attributable to long COVID in 2022 was projected to be 102.4\u00a0million (95% confidence interval [CI], 50.4\u2013162.2 million) worked hours, equivalent to 0.48% (95% CI, 0.24\u20130.76%) of total worked hours in Australia during the 2020\u201321 financial year. The estimated mean GDP loss caused by the projected decline in labour supply and reduced use of other production factors was $9.6 billion (95% CI, $4.7\u201315.2 billion), or 0.5% of GDP. The estimated labour loss was greatest for people aged 30\u201339 years (27.5 million [95% CI, 16.0\u201341.0 million] hours; 26.9% of total labour loss) and people aged 40\u201349 years (24.5 million [95% CI, 12.1\u201338.7 million] hours; 23.9% of total labour loss).<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title><jats:p>Widespread SARS\u2010CoV\u20102 infections in Australia mean that even a small proportion of infected people developing long COVID\u2010related illness and disability could have important population health and economic effects. A paradigm shift is needed, from a sole focus on the immediate effects of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID\u201019) to preventing and treating COVID\u201019 and treating long COVID, with implications for vaccine and antiviral policy and other mitigation of COVID\u201019.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.5694\/mja2.52400","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,18]],"date-time":"2024-08-18T14:10:20Z","timestamp":1723990220000},"page":"217-223","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":21,"title":["The public health and economic burden of long <scp>COVID<\/scp> in Australia, 2022\u201324: a modelling study"],"prefix":"10.5694","volume":"221","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6017-4430","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Valentina","family":"Costantino","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"The Kirby Institute  Sydney NSW"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Quentin","family":"Grafton","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Crawford School of Public Policy Australian National University  Canberra ACT"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Tom","family":"Kompas","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis University of Melbourne  Melbourne VIC"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Long","family":"Chu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Crawford School of Public Policy Australian National University  Canberra ACT"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Damian","family":"Honeyman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The Kirby Institute  Sydney NSW"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Adriana","family":"Notaras","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The Kirby Institute  Sydney NSW"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"C Raina","family":"MacIntyre","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The Kirby Institute  Sydney NSW"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,18]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_11_1_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2023.8823"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_2_1","unstructured":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.Long COVID basics. Updated 11 June2024.https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/covid\/long\u2010term\u2010effects\/?CDC_AAref_Val=https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/coronavirus\/2019\u2010ncov\/long\u2010term\u2010effects(viewed June 2024)."},{"key":"e_1_2_11_3_1","unstructured":"World Health Organization.Post COVID\u201019 condition (long COVID). 7 Dec 2022.https:\/\/www.who.int\/europe\/news\u2010room\/fact\u2010sheets\/item\/post\u2010COVID\u201019\u2010condition(viewed Nov 2023)."},{"key":"e_1_2_11_4_1","unstructured":"National Institute for Health and Care Excellence.COVID\u201019 rapid guideline: managing the long\u2010term effects of COVID\u201019 [NG188]. Updated 25 Jan 2024.https:\/\/www.who.int\/docs\/default\u2010source\/immunization\/sage\/covid\/sage\u2010prioritization\u2010roadmap\u2010covid19\u2010vaccines.pdf?Status=Temp&sfvrsn=bf227443_2(viewed June 2024)."},{"key":"e_1_2_11_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12916-021-02222-y"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.15585\/mmwr.mm7121e1"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-022-13495-5"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/02813432.2022.2139480"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph20021613"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41591-022-02051-3"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2022.11691"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjmed-2022-000229"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.eclinm.2021.101019"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_14_1","unstructured":"Trades Union Congress (United Kingdom).Workers\u2019 experience of Long Covid. Joint report by the TUC and Long Covid Support. 27 Mar 2023.https:\/\/www.tuc.org.uk\/research\u2010analysis\/reports\/workers\u2010experience\u2010long\u2010covid(viewed July 2024)."},{"key":"e_1_2_11_15_1","unstructured":"World Health Organization.WHO SAGE Roadmap for prioritizing uses of COVID\u201019 vaccines. 10 Dec 2023.https:\/\/www.who.int\/docs\/default\u2010source\/immunization\/sage\/covid\/sage\u2010prioritization\u2010roadmap\u2010covid19\u2010vaccines.pdf?Status=Temp&sfvrsn=bf227443_2(viewed May 2023)."},{"key":"e_1_2_11_16_1","article-title":"Australian state governments and mandatory reporting of positive COVID tests as a new surge begins","author":"Syed A","year":"2022","journal-title":"World Socialist Web Site"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_17_1","article-title":"How epidemiological models of COVID\u201019 help us estimate the true number of infections","author":"Giattino C.","year":"2020","journal-title":"Our World in Data"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S2468-2667(21)00064-5"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7326\/M20-3012"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7326\/M20-6976"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_21_1","unstructured":"Kirby Institute.Serosurveillance for SARS\u2010CoV\u20102 infection to inform public health responses. Undated.https:\/\/kirby.unsw.edu.au\/project\/serosurveillance\u2010sars\u2010cov\u20102\u2010infection\u2010inform\u2010public\u2010health\u2010responses(viewed Nov 2022)."},{"key":"e_1_2_11_22_1","unstructured":"Paediatric Active Enhanced Disease Surveillance.Paediatric SARS\u2010CoV\u20102 serosurvey 2022 Australia. Summary report. 3 Nov2022.https:\/\/paeds.org.au\/sites\/default\/files\/2022\u201011\/PAEDS%20NCIRS_COVID\u201019%20Paediatric%20Serosurvey%202022%20Report_3\u201011\u20102022_Final_1.pdf(viewed Nov 2022)."},{"key":"e_1_2_11_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/jtm\/taac037"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_24_1","unstructured":"World Health Organization.Consultation on the development of guidance on how to incorporate the results of modelling into WHO guidelines Geneva Switzerland 27\u201329 April 2016.https:\/\/iris.who.int\/bitstream\/handle\/10665\/258987\/WHO\u2010HIS\u2010IER\u2010REK\u20102017.2\u2010eng.pdf(viewed Mar 2024)."},{"key":"e_1_2_11_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ebiom.2023.104599"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_26_1","unstructured":"Australian Bureau of Statistics.Australian national accounts: input\u2013output tables 2020\u201321; here: Table\u00a05. 30 Mar 2023.https:\/\/www.abs.gov.au\/statistics\/economy\/national\u2010accounts\/australian\u2010national\u2010accounts\u2010input\u2010output\u2010tables\/2020\u201021\/5209055001DO001_202021.xlsx(viewed June 2023)."},{"key":"e_1_2_11_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e071050","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj-2022-071050","article-title":"EPILOC Phase 1 Study Group. Post\u2010acute sequelae of covid\u201019 six to 12 months after infection: population based study","volume":"379","author":"Peter RS","year":"2022","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_28_1","unstructured":"Australian Bureau of Statistics.Australian national accounts: national income expenditure and product. Table\u00a01. 2024.https:\/\/www.abs.gov.au\/statistics\/economy\/national\u2010accounts\/australian\u2010national\u2010accounts\u2010national\u2010income\u2010expenditure\u2010and\u2010product\/mar\u20102024\/5206001_Key_Aggregates.xlsx(viewed July 2024)."},{"key":"e_1_2_11_29_1","unstructured":"JandaM.Australia's economy grew 0.5pc in December 2022 quarter ABS data reveal well below most economists' forecasts. ABC News (Australia) 1 Mar2023.https:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/2023\u201003\u201001\/australian\u2010gdp\u2010december\u20102022\u2010abs\u2010economic\u2010growth\u2010slowing\/102038014(viewed June 2023)."},{"key":"e_1_2_11_30_1","unstructured":"Australian Institute of Health and Welfare.Heart stroke and vascular disease: Australian facts. Updated 30 June 2023. Archived:https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20230928063950\/https:\/\/www.aihw.gov.au\/reports\/heart\u2010stroke\u2010vascular\u2010diseases\/hsvd\u2010facts\/contents\/disease\u2010types(viewed June 2023)."},{"key":"e_1_2_11_31_1","unstructured":"Office for National Statistics.Self\u2010reported long COVID and labour market outcomes UK: 2022. 5\u00a0Dec 2022.https:\/\/www.ons.gov.uk\/peoplepopulationandcommunity\/healthandsocialcare\/conditionsanddiseases\/bulletins\/selfreportedlongcovidandlabourmarketoutcomesuk2022\/selfreportedlongcovidandlabourmarketoutcomesuk2022(viewed Nov 2023)."},{"key":"e_1_2_11_32_1","volume-title":"Potential scale of long COVID cases from the Omicron wave in\u00a0Australia: summer 2021\u20132022","author":"Hensher M","year":"2022"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_33_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjmed-2022-000385"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_34_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jamainternmed.2023.0743"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_35_1","unstructured":"Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation.Statement on the administration of COVID\u201019 vaccines in 2024. 29 Feb 2024.https:\/\/www.health.gov.au\/sites\/default\/files\/2024\u201003\/atagi\u2010statement\u2010on\u2010the\u2010administration\u2010of\u2010covid\u201019\u2010vaccines\u2010in\u20102024.pdf(viewed July 2024)."},{"key":"e_1_2_11_36_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S2352-4642(22)00154-7"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_37_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/pnasnexus\/pgad142"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_38_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2023.24103"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_39_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S2213-2600(23)00142-X"}],"container-title":["Medical Journal of Australia"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.5694\/mja2.52400","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,18]],"date-time":"2024-08-18T14:10:56Z","timestamp":1723990256000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.5694\/mja2.52400"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,18]]},"references-count":39,"journal-issue":{"issue":"4","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,19]]}},"alternative-id":["10.5694\/mja2.52400"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5694\/mja2.52400","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0025-729X","1326-5377"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0025-729X","type":"print"},{"value":"1326-5377","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,18]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2023-07-19","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2024-04-17","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2024-08-18","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}