{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,11,2]],"date-time":"2026-11-02T11:26:22Z","timestamp":1793618782666,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":15,"publisher":"Becaris Publishing Limited","issue":"11","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["J. Comp. Eff. Res."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,11]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    <jats:bold>Aim:<\/jats:bold>\n                    To quantify the market opportunity and economic impact of broadly neutralizing monoclonal antibodies (bnAbs) as a novel HIV prevention modality in high-income countries.\n                    <jats:bold>Materials &amp; methods:<\/jats:bold>\n                    Using a decision-tree and revenue model applied to an eligible US population of 1299,708 individuals and projecting to 2040, bnAbs are estimated to capture 1 in 8 PrEP users (12.5% of PrEP users, 95% credible interval 7.3% to 21.1%, equivalent to 8.0% of the prevention-eligible population) following assumed US FDA approval in 2030. All estimates are scenario based and conditional on assumed pricing, uptake and behavior; none are observed outcomes. Critically, roughly half of projected bnAb users, nearly 52,000 individuals, would not otherwise use any biomedical HIV prevention, representing a net expansion of PrEP users (95% credible interval: 21,859\u201395,581). US manufacturer revenue totaled $12.0 billion discounted at 3% per year to 2030 (95% credible interval $6.2 billion to $21.9 billion), equivalent to $14.5 billion undiscounted, over the 11 years from approval to 2040. Total US payer spending rose 3.6% ($463.6 million annually), though the credible interval crosses zero, and the mean cost per prevention user decreased provided bnAbs are priced at the modeled list price of $14,000 per year, below existing injectable PrEP options.\n                    <jats:bold>Conclusion:<\/jats:bold>\n                    Under the assumptions modeled here, bnAbs could reach roughly one in eight PrEP users in high-income countries, about half of them people not otherwise using biomedical prevention. Whether this translates into an attractive commercial opportunity, and whether per-user prevention costs fall or rise, depends principally on how bnAbs are priced relative to long-acting injectable PrEP. These are projections conditional on assumed efficacy, pricing and adoption behavior, not observed outcomes.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.57264\/cer-2026-0120","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,1]],"date-time":"2026-10-01T15:16:18Z","timestamp":1790867778000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["On the economics of broadly neutralizing monoclonal antibodies for HIV prevention in high-income countries"],"prefix":"10.57264","volume":"15","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4251-2912","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Blythe","family":"Adamson","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Infectious Economics, New York, NY 10025, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4786-1003","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Huub C","family":"Gelderblom","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Vaccine &amp; Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4637-1283","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Maurine D","family":"Miner","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Vaccine &amp; Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2179-2436","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Lawrence","family":"Corey","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Vaccine &amp; Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"36897","reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_7_3_2","unstructured":"UNAIDS. HIV estimates with uncertainty bounds 1990\u2013present (2025). https:\/\/www.unaids.org\/sites\/default\/files\/media_asset\/HIV_estimates_from_1990-to-present.xlsx"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.18356\/9789211544350","volume-title":"AIDS, crisis and the power to transform: UNAIDS Global AIDS Update 2025","author":"UNAIDS","year":"2025","unstructured":"UNAIDS. AIDS, crisis and the power to transform: UNAIDS Global AIDS Update 2025. Geneva, Switzerland (2025). https:\/\/www.unaids.org\/en\/UNAIDS-global-AIDS-update-2025"},{"issue":"11","key":"e_1_3_7_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1497","DOI":"10.1097\/QAD.0000000000004308","article-title":"The HIV\/AIDS pandemic: where are we now?","volume":"39","author":"Beyrer C","year":"2025","unstructured":"Beyrer C, Ratevosian J, Gelderblom H, Rosenberg NE. The HIV\/AIDS pandemic: where are we now? AIDS 39(11), 1497\u20131504 (2025).","journal-title":"AIDS"},{"key":"e_1_3_7_6_2","unstructured":"AVAC. PrEPWatch (2026). https:\/\/data.prepwatch.org"},{"issue":"4","key":"e_1_3_7_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e254","DOI":"10.1016\/S2352-3018(22)00030-3","article-title":"Discontinuation, suboptimal adherence, and reinitiation of oral HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis: a global systematic review and meta-analysis","volume":"9","author":"Zhang J","year":"2022","unstructured":"Zhang J, Li C, Xu J Discontinuation, suboptimal adherence, and reinitiation of oral HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis: a global systematic review and meta-analysis. 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Health Am."}],"container-title":["Journal of Comparative Effectiveness Research"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/becarispublishing.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.57264\/cer-2026-0120","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,11,2]],"date-time":"2026-11-02T10:34:26Z","timestamp":1793615666000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/becarispublishing.com\/doi\/10.57264\/cer-2026-0120"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,11]]},"references-count":15,"journal-issue":{"issue":"11","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,11]]}},"alternative-id":["10.57264\/cer-2026-0120"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.57264\/cer-2026-0120","relation":{},"ISSN":["2042-6305","2042-6313"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2042-6305","type":"print"},{"value":"2042-6313","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,11]]},"article-number":"e260120"}}