{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,21]],"date-time":"2026-10-21T09:43:37Z","timestamp":1792575817233,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":0,"publisher":"Danish Medical Association","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Dan Med J"],"abstract":"<jats:p>INTRODUCTION. Preterm prelabour rupture of foetal membranes (PPROM), a subtype of spontaneous preterm birth (sPTB), affects 2-4% of all pregnancies and precedes 40-50% of preterm births. So far, only symptomatic treatment is available, underscoring the need for early identification to enable prophylactic intervention. The primary aim of this study was to explore the possibility of developing an early prediction model for PPROM, and secondarily sPTB, in nulliparous women.\n\nMETHODS. The risk of PPROM and sPTB (&lt; 37 and &lt; 34 gestational weeks) was assessed before 16 weeks of gestation using a discrete SuperLearner model applied to a large dataset (n = 36,269) obtained from the Copenhagen Pregnancy Cohort and national health registries. Predictor variables were selected based on research literature and hypothesised risks.\n\nRESULTS. The prediction models proved clinically inadequate across all outcomes, reflected in low detection rates. For nulliparous women, discrimination of PPROM yielded a detection rate of 26.8% with a false positive rate (FPR) of 20%. For sPTB (&lt; 37 and &lt; 34 gestational weeks), the detection rates were 30.2% and 24.1%, respectively, using the same fixed FPR (20%).\n\nCONCLUSIONS. The discrimination of PPROM and sPTB was clinically insufficient; however, these models could potentially be optimised by incorporating first-trimester biochemical and biophysical markers.\n\nFUNDING. Copenhagen University Hospital Rigshospitalet\u2019s Research Fund.\n\nTRIAL REGISTRATION. Not relevant.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.61409\/a02260079","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,21]],"date-time":"2026-10-21T09:11:02Z","timestamp":1792573862000},"page":"1-10","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Early discrimination of preterm prelabour rupture of foetal membranes in nulliparous women"],"prefix":"10.61409","author":[{"given":"Mille","family":"Kirk","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Milos M.","family":"Koch","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nina O.","family":"Nathan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Esben","family":"Budtz-J\u00f8rgensen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hanne K.","family":"Hegaard","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Line","family":"Rode","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"40208","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,9]]},"container-title":["Danish Medical Journal"],"original-title":[],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,21]],"date-time":"2026-10-21T09:11:03Z","timestamp":1792573863000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/ugeskriftet.dk\/dmj\/A02260079"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,9]]},"references-count":0,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.61409\/a02260079","relation":{},"ISSN":["2245-1919"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2245-1919","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,9]]}}}