{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"institution":[{"name":"medRxiv"}],"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,20]],"date-time":"2026-07-20T13:33:53Z","timestamp":1784554433186,"version":"3.55.0"},"posted":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,4]]},"group-title":"Epidemiology","reference-count":16,"publisher":"openRxiv","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,4]],"date-time":"2026-02-04T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1770163200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/about\/FAQ#license"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"accepted":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,4]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Introduction<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Mortality and smoking rates vary over time across the US. The Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network\u2014Lung Working Group (CISNET-LWG) has developed a smoking history generator to describe the effects smoking on health. This work further refines these parameters and quantifies effects on life expectancy<\/jats:p>\n                <\/jats:sec>\n                <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Data from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and the Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey (TUS-CPS) were used to estimate smoking history parameters for each state. The age-period-cohort was used in most cases, but an age-cohort mode was used for cessation probabilities. Population mortality data were used to estimate mortality rates for all causes, lung cancer, and non-lung cancer. These were partitioned by smoking status.<\/jats:p>\n                <\/jats:sec>\n                <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>California and Kentucky are states with more or less aggressive tobacco control. The difference between population cohort life expectancy and life expectancy of never smoker was greater for males than for females, and it was greater in Kentucky than California because of higher smoking rates. These differences decreased with time. Similar result are shown for each state.<\/jats:p>\n                <\/jats:sec>\n                <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Variation in smoking parameters and mortality trends vary considerably among states. These show variation in exposure to tobacco smoking and their effects on life expectancy. The Southeast region tends to have greater differences from never smokers because of higher smoking rates. However, there are also other factors affecting mortality rates.<\/jats:p>\n                <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.64898\/2026.02.02.26345393","type":"posted-content","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,5]],"date-time":"2026-02-05T07:40:33Z","timestamp":1770277233000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Trends for the Impact of Cigarette Smoking on Mortality in US States"],"prefix":"10.64898","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1463-9417","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Theodore R.","family":"Holford","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biostatistics, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, 06520, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jamie","family":"Tam","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Rutgers Institute for Nicotine and Tobacco Studies, 303 George Street Suite 500, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jihyoun","family":"Jeon","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yoonseo","family":"Mok","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Rafael","family":"Meza","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"BC Cancer Research Institute, 675 West 10th Avenue, Vancouver, BC V5Z 1L3, Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"54368","reference":[{"key":"2026020610400758000_2026.02.02.26345393v1.1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(14)61591-9"},{"key":"2026020610400758000_2026.02.02.26345393v1.2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jamanetworkopen.2025.7695"},{"key":"2026020610400758000_2026.02.02.26345393v1.3","unstructured":"Surgeon General\u2019s Advisory Committee on Smoking and Health. Smoking and Health: Report of the Advisory Committee to the Surgeon General of the Public Health Service. U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, Public Health Service, Office of the Surgeon General; 1964:"},{"key":"2026020610400758000_2026.02.02.26345393v1.4","unstructured":"U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. The Health Consequences of Smoking-50 Years of Progress. U.S. Departmentof Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,National Center for Chronic Dease Prevention and Health Promotion, Office on Smoking and Health; 2014."},{"key":"2026020610400758000_2026.02.02.26345393v1.5","unstructured":"U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Smoking Cessation. A Report of the Surgeon General. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Office on Smoking and Health; 2020."},{"key":"2026020610400758000_2026.02.02.26345393v1.6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2013.285112"},{"key":"2026020610400758000_2026.02.02.26345393v1.7","unstructured":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Map of Current Cigarette Use among Adults. U.S. Department of Health & Human Services. Accessed January 5, 2021, 2021. Https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/statesystem\/cigaretteuseadult.html"},{"key":"2026020610400758000_2026.02.02.26345393v1.8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1539-6924.2011.01662.x"},{"key":"2026020610400758000_2026.02.02.26345393v1.9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.amepre.2013.10.022"},{"key":"2026020610400758000_2026.02.02.26345393v1.10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7326\/M18-1250"},{"issue":"1","key":"2026020610400758000_2026.02.02.26345393v1.11","first-page":"S18","article-title":"Differences in physical activity prevalence and trends from 3 U.S. surveillance systems: NHIS, NHANES, and BRFSS","volume":"6","year":"2009","journal-title":"Journal of Physical Activity and Health"},{"key":"2026020610400758000_2026.02.02.26345393v1.12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.amepre.2013.10.022"},{"issue":"4S1","key":"2026020610400758000_2026.02.02.26345393v1.13","first-page":"S22","article-title":"Smoking Histories by State in the U.S","volume":"64","year":"2023","journal-title":"Am J Prev Med"},{"key":"2026020610400758000_2026.02.02.26345393v1.14","unstructured":"National Center for Health Statistics. Data from: Detailed Mortality - Limited Geography, 1999\u20132020. 2022."},{"key":"2026020610400758000_2026.02.02.26345393v1.15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rstl.1825.0026"},{"key":"2026020610400758000_2026.02.02.26345393v1.16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.4780080504"}],"container-title":[],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/syndication.highwire.org\/content\/doi\/10.64898\/2026.02.02.26345393","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,6]],"date-time":"2026-02-06T18:40:17Z","timestamp":1770403217000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"http:\/\/medrxiv.org\/lookup\/doi\/10.64898\/2026.02.02.26345393"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,4]]},"references-count":16,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.64898\/2026.02.02.26345393","relation":{},"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,4]]},"subtype":"preprint"}}