{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,30]],"date-time":"2026-06-30T08:48:01Z","timestamp":1782809281071,"version":"3.54.5"},"reference-count":0,"publisher":"ECMS","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,23]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>The \u201coriginal sin\u201d, i.e. a country\u2019s inability to borrow abroad in its own currency, has long been a major source of concern for emerging market economies. Many of them, including Hungary, have by now succeeded in attracting foreign investors to their local currency government bond markets. According to recent experience, foreign demand for HUF-denominated bonds has become more volatile since 2020, which has sparked interest in studying the underlying motives. This paper estimates an explanatory vector-autoregressive (VAR) model to uncover the basic dynamics of three variables, namely the change in the non-resident holdings of HUF\u2011denominated government bonds, the exchange rate and spreads. We find evidence that the relationship has changed after 2020 and the spread over the relevant EUR benchmark yield has gained more relevance in explaining the variance in the non-resident stock.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.7148\/2026-0204","type":"proceedings-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,30]],"date-time":"2026-06-30T08:36:46Z","timestamp":1782808606000},"page":"204-211","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Drivers of foreign demand for huf-denominated government bonds in a vector-autoregressive model"],"prefix":"10.7148","author":[{"given":"Eszter","family":"Boros","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"4144","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,23]]},"event":{"name":"40th ECMS International Conference on Modelling and Simulation"},"container-title":["ECMS 2026 Proceedings edited by Filippo Sanfilippo, Florenc Demrozi, Fabio Sgarbossa, Mohammad Poursina"],"original-title":[],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,30]],"date-time":"2026-06-30T08:36:54Z","timestamp":1782808614000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"http:\/\/www.scs-europe.net\/dlib\/2026\/ecms2026acceptedpapers\/0204_fes_ecms2026_0082.pdf"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,23]]},"references-count":0,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.7148\/2026-0204","relation":{},"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,23]]}}}