{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,2]],"date-time":"2026-09-02T06:34:24Z","timestamp":1788330864490,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":14,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"suppl_4","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2015,4,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n               <jats:p>Background: The Medical College Admissions Test (MCAT) is a high-stakes test required for entry to most U.S. medical schools; admissions committees use this test to predict future accomplishment. Although there is evidence that the MCAT predicts success on multiple choice\u2013based assessments, there is little information on whether the MCAT predicts clinical-based assessments of undergraduate and graduate medical education performance. This study looked at associations between the MCAT and medical school grade point average (GPA), Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) scores, observed patient care encounters, and residency performance assessments. Methods: This study used data collected as part of the Long-Term Career Outcome Study to determine associations between MCAT scores, USMLE Step 1, Step 2 clinical knowledge and clinical skill, and Step 3 scores, Objective Structured Clinical Examination performance, medical school GPA, and PGY-1 program director (PD) assessment of physician performance for students graduating 2010 and 2011. Results: MCAT data were available for all students, and the PGY PD evaluation response rate was 86.2% (N = 340). All permutations of MCAT scores (first, last, highest, average) were weakly associated with GPA, Step 2 clinical knowledge scores, and Step 3 scores. MCAT scores were weakly to moderately associated with Step 1 scores. MCAT scores were not significantly associated with Step 2 clinical skills Integrated Clinical Encounter and Communication and Interpersonal Skills subscores, Objective Structured Clinical Examination performance or PGY-1 PD evaluations. Discussion: MCAT scores were weakly to moderately associated with assessments that rely on multiple choice testing. The association is somewhat stronger for assessments occurring earlier in medical school, such as USMLE Step 1. The MCAT was not able to predict assessments relying on direct clinical observation, nor was it able to predict PD assessment of PGY-1 performance.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.7205\/milmed-d-14-00550","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2015,4,6]],"date-time":"2015-04-06T13:12:10Z","timestamp":1428325930000},"page":"4-11","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":48,"title":["Does the MCAT Predict Medical School and PGY-1 Performance?"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"180","author":[{"given":"Aaron","family":"Saguil","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Family Medicine, Uniformed Services University, 4301 Jones Bridge Road, Bethesda MD 20814."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ting","family":"Dong","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Medicine, Uniformed Services University, 4301 Jones Bridge Road, Bethesda MD 20814"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Robert J.","family":"Gingerich","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Florida College of Medicine, P.O. Box 100215, Gainesville, FL 32610."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kimberly","family":"Swygert","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"National Board of Medical Examiners, 3750 Market Street, Philadelphia, PA 19104."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jeffrey S.","family":"LaRochelle","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Internal Medicine, Uniformed Services University, 4301 Jones Bridge Road, Bethesda MD 20814."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"suffix":"Jr.","given":"Anthony R.","family":"Artino","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Preventive Medicine and Biometrics, Uniformed Services University, 4301 Jones Bridge Road, Bethesda MD 20814."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"David F.","family":"Cruess","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Preventive Medicine and Biometrics, Uniformed Services University, 4301 Jones Bridge Road, Bethesda MD 20814."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Steven J.","family":"Durning","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Internal Medicine, Uniformed Services University, 4301 Jones Bridge Road, Bethesda MD 20814."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"286","reference":[{"key":"2020051807180957300_bib1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"980","DOI":"10.1097\/ACM.0b013e3181cece3d","article-title":"The predictive validity of three versions of the MCAT in relation to performance in medical school, residency, and licensing examinations: a longitudinal study of 36 classes of Jefferson Medical College","volume":"85","author":"Callahan","year":"2010","journal-title":"Acad Med"},{"key":"2020051807180957300_bib2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"S64","DOI":"10.1097\/ACM.0b013e3181ed38fc","article-title":"Validity of four approaches of using repeaters' MCAT scores in medical school admissions to predict USMLE Step 1 total scores","volume":"85","author":"Zhao","year":"2010","journal-title":"Acad Med"},{"key":"2020051807180957300_bib3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"100","DOI":"10.1097\/01.ACM.0000249878.25186.b7","article-title":"The predictive validity of the MCAT for medical school performance and medical board licensing examinations: a meta-analysis of the published research","volume":"82","author":"Donnon","year":"2007","journal-title":"Acad Med"},{"key":"2020051807180957300_bib4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"910","DOI":"10.1097\/00001888-200510000-00010","article-title":"Validity of the Medical College Admission Test for predicting medical school performance","volume":"80","author":"Julian","year":"2005","journal-title":"Acad Med"},{"key":"2020051807180957300_bib5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"S41","DOI":"10.1097\/00001888-199910000-00035","article-title":"Validity of MCAT scores for predicting clerkship performance of medical students grouped by sex and ethnicity","volume":"74","author":"Huff","year":"1999","journal-title":"Acad Med"},{"key":"2020051807180957300_bib6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"666","DOI":"10.1097\/ACM.0b013e3182864299","article-title":"The predictive validity of the MCAT exam in relation to academic performance through medical school: a national cohort study of 2001\u20132004 matriculants","volume":"88","author":"Dunleavy","year":"2013","journal-title":"Acad Med"},{"key":"2020051807180957300_bib7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"672","DOI":"10.1097\/ACM.0b013e31828bf252","article-title":"An overview of the medical school admission process and use of applicant data in decision making: what has changed since the 1980s?","volume":"88","author":"Monroe","year":"2013","journal-title":"Acad Med"},{"key":"2020051807180957300_bib8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"512","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2923.1986.tb01392.x","article-title":"Predicting residency performance with the new Medical College Admission Test","volume":"20","author":"Markert","year":"1986","journal-title":"Med Educ"},{"key":"2020051807180957300_bib9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"482","DOI":"10.1097\/00001888-198908000-00014","article-title":"Using a standardized-patient examination to establish the predictive validity of the MCAT and undergraduate GPA as admissions criteria","volume":"64","author":"Colliver","year":"1989","journal-title":"Acad Med"},{"key":"2020051807180957300_bib10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"95","DOI":"10.1080\/10401330701332094","article-title":"A validity generalization perspective on the ability of undergraduate GPA and the medical college admission test to predict important outcomes","volume":"19","author":"Kreiter","year":"2007","journal-title":"Teach Learn Med"},{"key":"2020051807180957300_bib11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"103","DOI":"10.1080\/01421590600622723","article-title":"BEME systematic review: predictive values of measurements obtained in medical schools and future performance in medical practice","volume":"28","author":"Hamdy","year":"2006","journal-title":"Med Teach"},{"key":"2020051807180957300_bib12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511816796","volume-title":"The Cambridge Handbook of Experise and Expert Performance","author":"Ericsson","year":"2006"},{"key":"2020051807180957300_bib13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"379","DOI":"10.1080\/10401334.2014.960294","article-title":"Validity evidence for medical school OSCEs: associations with USMLE\u00ae step assessments","volume":"26","author":"Dong","year":"2014","journal-title":"Teach Learn Med"},{"issue":"4 Suppl","key":"2020051807180957300_bib14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"97","DOI":"10.7205\/MILMED-D-14-00551","article-title":"Development and initial validation of a program director's evaluation form for medical school graduates","volume":"180","author":"Dong","year":"2015","journal-title":"Mil Med"}],"container-title":["Military Medicine"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/academic.oup.com\/milmed\/article-pdf\/180\/suppl_4\/4\/33225572\/milmed-d-14-00550.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"http:\/\/academic.oup.com\/milmed\/article-pdf\/180\/suppl_4\/4\/33225572\/milmed-d-14-00550.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2020,5,18]],"date-time":"2020-05-18T11:20:39Z","timestamp":1589800839000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/milmed\/article\/180\/suppl_4\/4\/4210177"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2015,4,1]]},"references-count":14,"journal-issue":{"issue":"suppl_4","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2015,4,1]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.7205\/milmed-d-14-00550","relation":{},"ISSN":["1930-613X","0026-4075"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1930-613X","type":"electronic"},{"value":"0026-4075","type":"print"}],"subject":[],"published-other":{"date-parts":[[2015,4]]},"published":{"date-parts":[[2015,4,1]]}}}