{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,11]],"date-time":"2026-05-11T13:06:27Z","timestamp":1778504787952,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":35,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2012,10,10]],"date-time":"2012-10-10T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1349827200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":192,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/3.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Journal of the International AIDS Society"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2012,4]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec><jats:title>Introduction<\/jats:title><jats:p>HIV\u2010positive patients receiving combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) frequently experience metabolic complications such as dyslipidemia and insulin resistance, as well as lipodystrophy, increasing the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes mellitus (DM). Rates of DM and other glucose\u2010associated disorders among HIV\u2010positive patients have been reported to range between 2 and 14%, and in an ageing HIV\u2010positive population, the prevalence of DM is expected to continue to increase. This study aims to develop a model to predict the short\u2010term (six\u2010month) risk of DM in HIV\u2010positive populations and to compare the existing models developed in the general population.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>All patients recruited to the Data Collection on Adverse events of Anti\u2010HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study with follow\u2010up data, without prior DM, myocardial infarction or other CVD events and with a complete DM risk factor profile were included. Conventional risk factors identified in the general population as well as key HIV\u2010related factors were assessed using Poisson\u2010regression methods. Expected probabilities of DM events were also determined based on the Framingham Offspring Study DM equation. The D:A:D and Framingham equations were then assessed using an internal\u2010external validation process; area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve and predicted DM events were determined.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>Of 33,308 patients, 16,632 (50%) patients were included, with 376 cases of new onset DM during 89,469 person\u2010years (PY). Factors predictive of DM included higher glucose, body mass index (BMI) and triglyceride levels, and older age. Among HIV\u2010related factors, recent CD4 counts of&lt;200 cells\/\u00b5L and lipodystrophy were predictive of new onset DM. The mean performance of the D:A:D and Framingham equations yielded AUROC of 0.894 (95% CI: 0.849, 0.940) and 0.877 (95% CI: 0.823, 0.932), respectively. The Framingham equation over\u2010predicted DM events compared to D:A:D for lower glucose and lower triglycerides, and for BMI levels below 25 kg\/m<jats:sup>2<\/jats:sup>.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title><jats:p>The D:A:D equation performed well in predicting the short\u2010term onset of DM in the validation dataset and for specific subgroups provided better estimates of DM risk than the Framingham.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.7448\/ias.15.2.17426","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2012,10,11]],"date-time":"2012-10-11T12:05:13Z","timestamp":1349957113000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":57,"title":["Predicting the short\u2010term risk of diabetes in HIV\u2010positive patients: the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti\u2010HIV Drugs (D:A:D) 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