{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,2]],"date-time":"2026-06-02T02:32:11Z","timestamp":1780367531343,"version":"3.54.1"},"reference-count":74,"publisher":"eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2014,10,16]],"date-time":"2014-10-16T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1413417600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/publicdomain\/zero\/1.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2014,10,16]],"date-time":"2014-10-16T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1413417600000},"content-version":"am","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/publicdomain\/zero\/1.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2014,10,16]],"date-time":"2014-10-16T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1413417600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/publicdomain\/zero\/1.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000180","name":"U.S. Department of Homeland Security","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["Research and Policy for Infectious Disease Dynamics"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["Research and Policy for Infectious Disease Dynamics"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000180","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000061","name":"Fogarty International Center","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["Research and Policy for Infectious Disease Dynamics"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["Research and Policy for Infectious Disease Dynamics"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000061","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"abstract":"<jats:p>Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses is an important goal in public health research. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster, and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk assessment capabilities. However, the complexities of the relationships between virus genotype and phenotype make such predictions extremely difficult. The integration of experimental work, computational tool development, and analysis of evolutionary pathways, together with refinements to influenza surveillance, has the potential to transform our ability to assess the risks posed to humans by non-human influenza viruses and lead to improved pandemic preparedness and response.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.7554\/elife.03883","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2014,10,16]],"date-time":"2014-10-16T06:50:15Z","timestamp":1413442215000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":62,"title":["Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment"],"prefix":"10.7554","volume":"3","author":[{"given":"Colin A","family":"Russell","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Peter M","family":"Kasson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biomedical Engineering, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, United States"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ruben O","family":"Donis","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, United States"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Steven","family":"Riley","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"John","family":"Dunbar","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Bioscience Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, United States"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Andrew","family":"Rambaut","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, United States"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jason","family":"Asher","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Leidos contract support to the Division of Analytic Decision Support, Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Department of Health and Human Services, Washington, United States"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Stephen","family":"Burke","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, United States"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"C Todd","family":"Davis","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, United States"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Rebecca J","family":"Garten","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, United States"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sandrasegaram","family":"Gnanakaran","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Bioscience Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, United States"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0611-7272","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Simon I","family":"Hay","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sander","family":"Herfst","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Viroscience, Postgraduate School of Molecular Medicine, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, Netherlands"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nicola S","family":"Lewis","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"James O","family":"Lloyd-Smith","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, United States"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Catherine A","family":"Macken","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Bioscience Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, United States"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sebastian","family":"Maurer-Stroh","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Bioinformatics Institute, Agency for Science Technology and Research, Singapore, Singapore"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Elizabeth","family":"Neuhaus","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, United States"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Colin R","family":"Parrish","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"James A Baker Institute, College of Veterinary Medicine, Cornell University, Ithaca, United States"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kim M","family":"Pepin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, United States"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Samuel S","family":"Shepard","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, United States"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4367-3849","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"David L","family":"Smith","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, United States"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"David L","family":"Suarez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Exotic and Emerging Avian Viral Diseases Research Unit, Southeast Poultry Research Laboratories, United States Department of Agriculture, Athens, United States"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Susan C","family":"Trock","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, United States"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Marc-Alain","family":"Widdowson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, United States"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Dylan B","family":"George","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, United States"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1504-9213","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Marc","family":"Lipsitch","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, United States"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1267-3408","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Jesse D","family":"Bloom","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Basic Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, United States"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"4374","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2014,10,16]]},"reference":[{"key":"bib1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"4702","DOI":"10.1021\/ja8085643","article-title":"Characterizing loop dynamics and ligand recognition in human- and avian-type influenza neuraminidases via generalized born molecular dynamics and end-point free energy calculations","volume":"131","author":"Amaro","year":"2009","journal-title":"Journal of the American Chemical Society"},{"key":"bib2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"740","DOI":"10.1086\/650464","article-title":"Effect of the neuraminidase mutation H274Y conferring resistance to oseltamivir on the replicative capacity and virulence of old and recent human influenza A(H1N1) viruses","volume":"201","author":"Baz","year":"2010","journal-title":"Journal of Infectious Diseases"},{"key":"bib3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"504","DOI":"10.1038\/nature12060","article-title":"The global distribution and burden of dengue","volume":"496","author":"Bhatt","year":"2013","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"bib4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1272","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1187816","article-title":"Permissive secondary mutations enable the evolution of influenza oseltamivir resistance","volume":"328","author":"Bloom","year":"2010","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"bib5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e01730-14","DOI":"10.1128\/mBio.01730-14","article-title":"Risks and benefits of gain-of-function experiments with pathogens of pandemic potential, such as influenza virus: a call for a science-based discussion","volume":"5","author":"Casadevall","year":"2014","journal-title":"Mbio"},{"key":"bib6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"714","DOI":"10.1016\/s0140-6736(14)60111\u20132","article-title":"Clinical and epidemiological characteristics of a fatal case of avian influenza A H10N8 virus infection: a descriptive study","volume":"383","author":"Chen","year":"2014","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"bib7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"105","DOI":"10.1016\/j.virol.2011.10.006","article-title":"In vitro evolution of H5N1 avian influenza virus toward human-type receptor specificity","volume":"422","author":"Chen","year":"2012","journal-title":"Virology"},{"key":"bib8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"11235","DOI":"10.1128\/JVI.05794-11","article-title":"The M segment of the 2009 new pandemic H1N1 influenza virus is critical for its high transmission efficiency in the guinea pig model","volume":"85","author":"Chou","year":"2011","journal-title":"Journal of Virology"},{"key":"bib9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/82_2014_419","article-title":"Pandemic Preparedness and the Influenza Risk Assessment Tool (IRAT)","author":"Cox","year":"2014","journal-title":"Current Topics in Microbiology and Immunology"},{"key":"bib10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"333","DOI":"10.1007\/s00239-009-9282-x","article-title":"Using non-homogeneous models of nucleotide substitution to identify host shift events: application to the origin of the 1918 'Spanish' influenza pandemic virus","volume":"69","author":"dos Reis","year":"2009","journal-title":"Journal of Molecular Evolution"},{"key":"bib11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"S4","DOI":"10.1093\/cid\/cit272","article-title":"Human infections with influenza A(H3N2) variant virus in the United States, 2011-2012","volume":"57","author":"Epperson","year":"2013","journal-title":"Clinical Infectious Diseases"},{"key":"bib12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"20120196","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2012.0196","article-title":"Simultaneously reconstructing viral cross-species transmission history and identifying the underlying constraints","volume":"368","author":"Faria","year":"2013","journal-title":"Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, Biological Sciences"},{"key":"bib13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e","DOI":"10.1128\/mBio.00359-12","article-title":"Research on highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza virus: the way forward","volume":"3","author":"Fauci","year":"2012","journal-title":"Mbio"},{"key":"bib14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"414","DOI":"10.2471\/BLT.09.040609","article-title":"Swine flu of 1976: lessons from the past. An interview with Dr Harvey V Fineberg","volume":"87","author":"Fineberg","year":"2009","journal-title":"Bulletin of the World Health Organization"},{"key":"bib15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1243325","article-title":"Gain-of-Function Experiments on H7N9","author":"Fouchier","year":"2013","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"bib16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e1003151","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.ppat.1003151","article-title":"Influenza HA subtypes demonstrate divergent phenotypes for cleavage activation and pH of fusion: implications for host range and adaptation","volume":"9","author":"Galloway","year":"2013","journal-title":"PLOS Pathogens"},{"key":"bib17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"4370","DOI":"10.1128\/JVI.06959-11","article-title":"Receptor-binding profiles of H7 subtype influenza viruses in different host species","volume":"86","author":"Gambaryan","year":"2012","journal-title":"Journal of Virology"},{"key":"bib18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1888","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa1304459","article-title":"Human infection with a novel avian-origin influenza A (H7N9) virus","volume":"368","author":"Gao","year":"2013","journal-title":"New England Journal of Medicine"},{"key":"bib19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"676","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(14)60163-X","article-title":"Avian influenza A H10N8\u2014a virus on the verge?","volume":"383","author":"Garc\u00cca-Sastre","year":"2014","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"bib20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e1814","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0001814","article-title":"A long neglected world malaria map: Plasmodium vivax endemicity in 2010","volume":"6","author":"Gething","year":"2012","journal-title":"PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases"},{"key":"bib21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"378","DOI":"10.1186\/1475-2875-10-378","article-title":"A new world malaria map: Plasmodium falciparum endemicity in 2010","volume":"10","author":"Gething","year":"2011","journal-title":"Malaria Journal"},{"key":"bib22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e00631","DOI":"10.7554\/eLife.00631","article-title":"Stability-mediated epistasis constrains the evolution of an influenza protein","volume":"2","author":"Gong","year":"2013","journal-title":"eLife"},{"key":"bib23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"327","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1090727","article-title":"Unifying the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of pathogens","volume":"303","author":"Grenfell","year":"2004","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"bib24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"9363","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.96.16.9363","article-title":"Molecular characterization of H9N2 influenza viruses: were they the donors of the \u201cinternal\u201d genes of H5N1 viruses in Hong Kong?","volume":"96","author":"Guan","year":"1999","journal-title":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of USA"},{"key":"bib25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1840","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1062882","article-title":"Molecular basis for high virulence of Hong Kong H5N1 influenza A viruses","volume":"293","author":"Hatta","year":"2001","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"bib26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e1000290","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1000290","article-title":"Estimating the global clinical burden of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in 2007","volume":"7","author":"Hay","year":"2010","journal-title":"PLOS Medicine"},{"key":"bib27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3752","DOI":"10.1128\/JVI.02634-09","article-title":"Introduction of virulence markers in PB2 of pandemic swine-origin influenza virus does not result in enhanced virulence or transmission","volume":"84","author":"Herfst","year":"2010","journal-title":"Journal of Virology"},{"key":"bib28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1534","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1213362","article-title":"Airborne transmission of influenza A\/H5N1 virus between ferrets","volume":"336","author":"Herfst","year":"2012","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"bib29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e1003755","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1003755","article-title":"Identifying selection in the within-host evolution of influenza using viral sequence data","volume":"10","author":"Illingworth","year":"2014","journal-title":"PLOS Computational Biology"},{"key":"bib30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"420","DOI":"10.1038\/nature10831","article-title":"Experimental adaptation of an influenza H5 HA confers respiratory droplet transmission to a reassortant H5 HA\/H1N1 virus in ferrets","volume":"486","author":"Imai","year":"2012","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"bib31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e00067","DOI":"10.1128\/mBio.00067-10","article-title":"The PB2-E627K mutation attenuates viruses containing the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic polymerase","volume":"1","author":"Jagger","year":"2010","journal-title":"mBio"},{"key":"bib32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"650","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(08)70232-9","article-title":"Stockpiling prepandemic influenza vaccines: a new cornerstone of pandemic preparedness plans","volume":"8","author":"Jennings","year":"2008","journal-title":"Lancet Infectious Diseases"},{"key":"bib33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"105","DOI":"10.1353\/bhm.2002.0022","article-title":"Updating the accounts: global mortality of the 1918-1920 \u201cSpanish\u201d influenza pandemic","volume":"76","author":"Johnson","year":"2002","journal-title":"Bulletin of the History of Medicine"},{"key":"bib34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e24155","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0024155","article-title":"The pattern of influenza virus attachment varies among wild bird species","volume":"6","author":"Jourdain","year":"2011","journal-title":"PLOS ONE"},{"key":"bib35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"11338","DOI":"10.1021\/ja904557w","article-title":"Combining molecular dynamics with bayesian analysis to predict and evaluate ligand-binding mutations in influenza hemagglutinin","volume":"131","author":"Kasson","year":"2009","journal-title":"Journal of the American Chemical Society"},{"key":"bib36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/jit573","article-title":"Influenza A(H5N1) vaccines: are we better prepared for the next pandemic?","volume":"209","author":"Keitel","year":"2014","journal-title":"Journal of Infectious Diseases"},{"key":"bib37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"703","DOI":"10.1038\/nature02951","article-title":"Enhanced virulence of influenza A viruses with the haemagglutinin of the 1918 pandemic virus","volume":"431","author":"Kobasa","year":"2004","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"bib38","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"271","DOI":"10.1016\/j.virol.2006.12.027","article-title":"Host-range determinants on the PB2 protein of influenza A viruses control the interaction between the viral polymerase and nucleoprotein in human cells","volume":"362","author":"Labadie","year":"2007","journal-title":"Virology"},{"key":"bib39","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e1002443","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.ppat.1002443","article-title":"Eurasian-origin gene segments contribute to the transmissibility, aerosol release, and morphology of the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus","volume":"7","author":"Lakdawala","year":"2011","journal-title":"PLOS Pathogens"},{"key":"bib40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e1003932","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.ppat.1003932","article-title":"Unifying viral genetics and human transportation data to predict the global transmission dynamics of human influenza H3N2","volume":"10","author":"Lemey","year":"2014","journal-title":"PLOS Pathogens"},{"key":"bib41","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e00290","DOI":"10.1128\/mBio.00290-12","article-title":"Biocontainment in gain-of-function infectious disease research","volume":"3","author":"Lipkin","year":"2012","journal-title":"mBio"},{"key":"bib42","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e1001646","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1001646","article-title":"Ethical alternatives to experiments with novel potential pandemic pathogens","volume":"11","author":"Lipsitch","year":"2014","journal-title":"PLOS Medicine"},{"key":"bib43","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"9983","DOI":"10.1128\/JVI.01399-13","article-title":"The effect of the PB2 mutation 627K on highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza virus is dependent on the virus lineage","volume":"87","author":"Long","year":"2013","journal-title":"Journal of Virology"},{"key":"bib44","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"5398","DOI":"10.1128\/JVI.75.11.5398-5404.2001","article-title":"Residue 627 of PB2 is a determinant of cold sensitivity in RNA replication of avian influenza viruses","volume":"75","author":"Massin","year":"2001","journal-title":"Journal of Virology"},{"key":"bib45","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"21312","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0911915106","article-title":"Adaptive strategies of the influenza virus polymerase for replication in humans","volume":"106","author":"Mehle","year":"2009","journal-title":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of USA"},{"key":"bib46","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1100","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(09)62126-7","article-title":"Incidence of 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 infection in England: a cross-sectional serological study","volume":"375","author":"Miller","year":"2010","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"bib47","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1002\/prot.23200","article-title":"Critical assessment of methods of protein structure prediction (CASP)--round IX","volume":"79","author":"Moult","year":"2011","journal-title":"Proteins"},{"key":"bib48","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"334","DOI":"10.1038\/274334a0","article-title":"Recent human influenza A (H1N1) viruses are closely related genetically to strains isolated in 1950","volume":"274","author":"Nakajima","year":"1978","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"bib49","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"931","DOI":"10.1038\/nature08157","article-title":"Emergence and pandemic potential of swine-origin H1N1 influenza virus","volume":"459","author":"Neumann","year":"2009","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"bib50","article-title":"OIE Terrestrial Animal Health Code: Volume 2","author":"OIE","year":"2013","journal-title":"OIE"},{"key":"bib51","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"S82","DOI":"10.1038\/nm1141","article-title":"Influenza: old and new threats","volume":"10","author":"Palese","year":"2004","journal-title":"Nature Medicine"},{"key":"bib52","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"20120333","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2012.0333","article-title":"Multiple scales of selection influence the evolutionary emergence of novel pathogens","volume":"368","author":"Park","year":"2013","journal-title":"Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, Biological Sciences"},{"key":"bib53","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1173","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1219936","article-title":"Public health. Surveillance of animal influenza for pandemic preparedness","volume":"335","author":"Peiris","year":"2012","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"bib54","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"540","DOI":"10.1038\/nrg2583","article-title":"Evolutionary analysis of the dynamics of viral infectious disease","volume":"10","author":"Pybus","year":"2009","journal-title":"Nature Reviews Genetics"},{"key":"bib55","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1541","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1222526","article-title":"The potential for respiratory droplet-transmissible A\/H5N1 influenza virus to evolve in a mammalian host","volume":"336","author":"Russell","year":"2012","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"bib56","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"127","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwq347","article-title":"Absolute humidity and pandemic versus epidemic influenza","volume":"173","author":"Shaman","year":"2011","journal-title":"American Journal of Epidemiology"},{"key":"bib57","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"69","DOI":"10.1186\/1756-3305-5-69","article-title":"A global map of dominant malaria vectors","volume":"5","author":"Sinka","year":"2012","journal-title":"Parasites & Vectors"},{"key":"bib58","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1122","DOI":"10.1038\/nature08182","article-title":"Origins and evolutionary genomics of the 2009 swine-origin H1N1 influenza A epidemic","volume":"459","author":"Smith","year":"2009","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"bib59","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"20130872","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2013.0872","article-title":"Inferring patterns of influenza transmission in swine from multiple streams of surveillance data","volume":"280","author":"Strelioff","year":"2013","journal-title":"Proceedings of the Royal Society B, Biological Sciences"},{"key":"bib60","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1475","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cell.2013.05.035","article-title":"Structural determinants for naturally evolving H5N1 hemagglutinin to switch its receptor specificity","volume":"153","author":"Tharakaraman","year":"2013","journal-title":"Cell"},{"key":"bib61","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"403","DOI":"10.1016\/j.virol.2007.08.035","article-title":"Analysis of residues near the fusion peptide in the influenza hemagglutinin structure for roles in triggering membrane fusion","volume":"370","author":"Thoennes","year":"2008","journal-title":"Virology"},{"key":"bib62","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1058","DOI":"10.1637\/10204-041412-ResNote.1","article-title":"Development of an influenza virologic risk assessment tool","volume":"56","author":"Trock","year":"2012","journal-title":"Avian Diseases"},{"key":"bib63","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"519","DOI":"10.1038\/nature10004","article-title":"Long-term evolution and transmission dynamics of swine influenza A virus","volume":"473","author":"Vijaykrishna","year":"2011","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"bib64","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"152","DOI":"10.1128\/MMBR.56.1.152-179.1992","article-title":"Evolution and ecology of influenza A viruses","volume":"56","author":"Webster","year":"1992","journal-title":"Microbiological Reviews"},{"key":"bib65","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"771","DOI":"10.1016\/S2213-2600(13)70221-2","article-title":"Human infection with avian influenza A H6N1 virus: an epidemiological analysis","volume":"1","author":"Wei","year":"2013","journal-title":"Lancet Respiratory Medicine"},{"key":"bib66","article-title":"Pandemic influenza preparedness framework for the sharing of influenza viruses and access to vaccines and other benefits","author":"WHO","year":"2011"},{"key":"bib67","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2636","DOI":"10.1038\/ncomms3636","article-title":"Selection on haemagglutinin imposes a bottleneck during mammalian transmission of reassortant H5N1 influenza viruses","volume":"4","author":"Wilker","year":"2013","journal-title":"Nature Communications"},{"key":"bib68","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"254","DOI":"10.1038\/nature13016","article-title":"A synchronized global sweep of the internal genes of modern avian influenza virus","volume":"508","author":"Worobey","year":"2014","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"bib69","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"392","DOI":"10.1038\/nature12144","article-title":"Receptor binding by a ferret-transmissible H5 avian influenza virus","volume":"497","author":"Xiong","year":"2013","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"bib70","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"357","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1186430","article-title":"Structural basis of preexisting immunity to the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza virus","volume":"328","author":"Xu","year":"2010","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"bib71","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"378","DOI":"10.1038\/nature05264","article-title":"Haemagglutinin mutations responsible for the binding of H5N1 influenza A viruses to human-type receptors","volume":"444","author":"Yamada","year":"2006","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"bib72","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"14264","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1111000108","article-title":"Hemagglutinin-neuraminidase balance confers respiratory-droplet transmissibility of the pandemic H1N1 influenza virus in ferrets","volume":"108","author":"Yen","year":"2011","journal-title":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of USA"},{"key":"bib73","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1459","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1229455","article-title":"H5N1 hybrid viruses bearing 2009\/H1N1 virus genes transmit in guinea pigs by respiratory droplet","volume":"340","author":"Zhang","year":"2013","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"bib74","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1016\/j.virol.2010.02.024","article-title":"Substitution of lysine at 627 position in PB2 protein does not change virulence of the 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus in mice","volume":"401","author":"Zhu","year":"2010","journal-title":"Virology"}],"container-title":["eLife"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/elifesciences.org\/lookup\/doi\/10.7554\/eLife.03883","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/cdn.elifesciences.org\/articles\/03883\/elife-03883-v1.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/cdn.elifesciences.org\/articles\/03883\/elife-03883-v1.xml","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/elifesciences.org\/articles\/03883","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,11]],"date-time":"2023-10-11T20:47:39Z","timestamp":1697057259000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/elifesciences.org\/articles\/03883"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2014,10,16]]},"references-count":74,"alternative-id":["10.7554\/eLife.03883"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.7554\/elife.03883","archive":["CLOCKSS"],"relation":{"has-review":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.7554\/eLife.03883.006","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.7554\/eLife.03883.005","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["2050-084X"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2050-084X","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2014,10,16]]},"article-number":"e03883"}}