{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,19]],"date-time":"2026-08-19T19:05:12Z","timestamp":1787166312060,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":40,"publisher":"eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2015,7,11]],"date-time":"2015-07-11T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1436572800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2015,7,11]],"date-time":"2015-07-11T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1436572800000},"content-version":"am","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2015,7,11]],"date-time":"2015-07-11T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1436572800000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003130","name":"Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["G040912N"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["G040912N"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003130","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100007660","name":"University of Antwerp","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["Special Research Fund predoctoral fellowship"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["Special Research Fund predoctoral fellowship"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100007660","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"abstract":"<jats:p>Varicella-zoster virus (VZV) causes chickenpox and reactivation of latent VZV causes herpes zoster (HZ). VZV reactivation is subject to the opposing mechanisms of declining and boosted VZV-specific cellular mediated immunity (CMI). A reduction in exogenous re-exposure \u2018opportunities\u2019 through universal chickenpox vaccination could therefore lead to an increase in HZ incidence. We present the first individual-based model that integrates within-host data on VZV-CMI and between-host transmission data to simulate HZ incidence. This model allows estimating currently unknown pivotal biomedical parameters, including the duration of exogenous boosting at 2 years, with a peak threefold to fourfold increase of VZV-CMI; the VZV weekly reactivation probability at 5% and VZV subclinical reactivation having no effect on VZV-CMI. A 100% effective chickenpox vaccine given to 1 year olds would cause a 1.75 times peak increase in HZ 31 years after implementation. This increase is predicted to occur mainly in younger age groups than is currently assumed.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.7554\/elife.07116","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2015,7,23]],"date-time":"2015-07-23T07:34:29Z","timestamp":1437636869000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":30,"title":["Integrating between-host transmission and within-host immunity to analyze the impact of varicella vaccination on zoster"],"prefix":"10.7554","volume":"4","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0831-2063","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Benson","family":"Ogunjimi","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Health Economics Research and Modeling Infectious Diseases, Vaccine and Infectious Disease Institute, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium"},{"name":"Interuniversity Institute for Biostatistics and Statistical Bioinformatics, Hasselt University, Hasselt, 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