{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,24]],"date-time":"2026-08-24T10:38:02Z","timestamp":1787567882995,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":48,"publisher":"eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,17]],"date-time":"2025-01-17T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1737072000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,17]],"date-time":"2025-01-17T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1737072000000},"content-version":"am","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,17]],"date-time":"2025-01-17T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1737072000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["elifesciences.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"abstract":"<jats:sec id=\"abs1\">\n                    <jats:title>Background:<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) pancreatitis (PEP) is a severe and deadly adverse event following ERCP. The ideal method for predicting PEP risk before ERCP has yet to be identified. We aimed to establish a simple PEP risk score model (SuPER model: Support for PEP Reduction) that can be applied before ERCP.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"abs2\">\n                    <jats:title>Methods:<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>This multicenter study enrolled 2074 patients who underwent ERCP. Among them, 1037 patients each were randomly assigned to the development and validation cohorts. In the development cohort, the risk score model for predicting PEP was established via logistic regression analysis. In the validation cohort, the performance of the model was assessed.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"abs3\">\n                    <jats:title>Results:<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>In the development cohort, five PEP risk factors that could be identified before ERCP were extracted and assigned weights according to their respective regression coefficients: \u20132 points for pancreatic calcification, 1 point for female sex, and 2 points for intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm, a native papilla of Vater, or the pancreatic duct procedures (treated as \u2018planned pancreatic duct procedures\u2019 for calculating the score before ERCP). The PEP occurrence rate was 0% among low-risk patients (\u22640 points), 5.5% among moderate-risk patients (1\u20133 points), and 20.2% among high-risk patients (4\u20137 points). In the validation cohort, the C statistic of the risk score model was 0.71 (95% CI 0.64\u20130.78), which was considered acceptable. The PEP risk classification (low, moderate, and high) was a significant predictive factor for PEP that was independent of intraprocedural PEP risk factors (precut sphincterotomy and inadvertent pancreatic duct cannulation) (OR 4.2, 95% CI 2.8\u20136.3; p&lt;0.01).<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"abs4\">\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions:<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The PEP risk score allows an estimation of the risk of PEP prior to ERCP, regardless of whether the patient has undergone pancreatic duct procedures. This simple risk model, consisting of only five items, may aid in predicting and explaining the risk of PEP before ERCP and in preventing PEP by allowing selection of the appropriate expert endoscopist and useful PEP prophylaxes.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"abs5\">\n                    <jats:title>Funding:<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>No external funding was received for this work.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.7554\/elife.101604","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,26]],"date-time":"2024-09-26T11:51:03Z","timestamp":1727351463000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.7554\/elife.101604","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["A new preprocedural predictive risk model for post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography pancreatitis: The SuPER 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