{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,3]],"date-time":"2026-09-03T15:29:55Z","timestamp":1788449395873,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":46,"publisher":"eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2017,9,12]],"date-time":"2017-09-12T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1505174400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2017,9,12]],"date-time":"2017-09-12T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1505174400000},"content-version":"am","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2017,9,12]],"date-time":"2017-09-12T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1505174400000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001711","name":"Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F\u00f6rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["33CS30-148522"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["33CS30-148522"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001711","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Yvonne-Jacob Foundation"},{"name":"University of Zurich's Clinical Research Priority Program's ZPHI"},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001711","name":"Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F\u00f6rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["159868"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["159868"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001711","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001711","name":"Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F\u00f6rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["PZ00P3-142411"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["PZ00P3-142411"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001711","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001711","name":"Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F\u00f6rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["BSSGI0-155851"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["BSSGI0-155851"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001711","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    Assessing the danger of transition of HIV transmission from a concentrated to a generalized epidemic is of major importance for public health. In this study, we develop a phylogeny-based statistical approach to address this question. As a case study, we use this to investigate the trends and determinants of HIV transmission among Swiss heterosexuals. We extract the corresponding transmission clusters from a phylogenetic tree. To capture the incomplete sampling, the delayed introduction of imported infections to Switzerland, and potential factors associated with basic reproductive number\n                    <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\">\n                      <mml:msub>\n                        <mml:mi>R<\/mml:mi>\n                        <mml:mn>0<\/mml:mn>\n                      <\/mml:msub>\n                    <\/mml:math>\n                    , we extend the branching process model to infer transmission parameters. Overall, the\n                    <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\">\n                      <mml:msub>\n                        <mml:mi>R<\/mml:mi>\n                        <mml:mn>0<\/mml:mn>\n                      <\/mml:msub>\n                    <\/mml:math>\n                    is estimated to be\n                    <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\">\n                      <mml:mn>0.44<\/mml:mn>\n                    <\/mml:math>\n                    (\n                    <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\">\n                      <mml:mrow>\n                        <mml:mn>95<\/mml:mn>\n                        <mml:mo>%<\/mml:mo>\n                      <\/mml:mrow>\n                    <\/mml:math>\n                    -confidence interval\n                    <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\">\n                      <mml:mn>0.42<\/mml:mn>\n                    <\/mml:math>\n                    \u2014\n                    <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\">\n                      <mml:mn>0.46<\/mml:mn>\n                    <\/mml:math>\n                    ) and it is decreasing by\n                    <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\">\n                      <mml:mrow>\n                        <mml:mn>11<\/mml:mn>\n                        <mml:mo>%<\/mml:mo>\n                      <\/mml:mrow>\n                    <\/mml:math>\n                    per\n                    <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\">\n                      <mml:mn>10<\/mml:mn>\n                    <\/mml:math>\n                    years (\n                    <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\">\n                      <mml:mrow>\n                        <mml:mn>4<\/mml:mn>\n                        <mml:mo>%<\/mml:mo>\n                      <\/mml:mrow>\n                    <\/mml:math>\n                    \u2014\n                    <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\">\n                      <mml:mrow>\n                        <mml:mn>17<\/mml:mn>\n                        <mml:mo>%<\/mml:mo>\n                      <\/mml:mrow>\n                    <\/mml:math>\n                    ). Our findings indicate rather diminishing HIV transmission among Swiss heterosexuals far below the epidemic threshold. Generally, our approach allows to assess the danger of self-sustained epidemics from any viral sequence data.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.7554\/elife.28721","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2017,9,8]],"date-time":"2017-09-08T08:00:15Z","timestamp":1504857615000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":18,"title":["Assessing the danger of self-sustained HIV epidemics in heterosexuals by population based phylogenetic cluster analysis"],"prefix":"10.7554","volume":"6","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3065-8578","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Teja","family":"Turk","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Infectious Diseases and Hospital Epidemiology, University Hospital Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland"},{"name":"Institute of Medical Virology, University of Zurich, Zurich, 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