{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,30]],"date-time":"2026-07-30T13:22:09Z","timestamp":1785417729131,"version":"3.56.0"},"reference-count":19,"publisher":"eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,13]],"date-time":"2023-10-13T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1697155200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,13]],"date-time":"2023-10-13T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1697155200000},"content-version":"am","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,13]],"date-time":"2023-10-13T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1697155200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000925","name":"National Health and Medical Research Council","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["APP1135172"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["APP1135172"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000925","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000925","name":"National Health and Medical Research Council","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["APP1159491"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["APP1159491"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000925","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001171","name":"Cancer Institute New South Wales","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["ECF181561"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["ECF181561"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001171","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["elifesciences.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"accepted":{"date-parts":[[2023,9,20]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    COVID-19 disrupted school attendance in many countries, delaying routine adolescent vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) in some settings. We used\n                    <jats:italic>Policy1-Cervix<\/jats:italic>\n                    , a dynamic model simulating HPV transmission, natural history, vaccination, cervical screening, and diagnosis of HPV-related cancers, to estimate the impact on HPV-related cancers from disruptions to HPV vaccination in a high-income setting. A baseline scenario of no disruption to HPV vaccination was modelled, which assumed uptake of the nonavalent vaccine at the age of 12 by 82.4% of females and 75.5% of males, as is the coverage in Australia. Additional lifetime HPV-related cancer cases were calculated for three disruption scenarios affecting one birth cohort (2008; aged 12 in 2020) compared to the baseline scenario: (1) 1-year delay (no doses missed); (2) 1- to 7-year delay (slow catch-up); (3) no catch-up (herd effects only). A fourth scenario assumed no catch-up HPV vaccination for two birth cohorts, that is all individuals born in 2008 and in 2009 missed vaccination (worst-case scenario). Compared to 1532 HPV-related cancer cases estimated for the baseline no disruption scenario, we found a 1-year delay could result in \u22640.3% more HPV-related cancers (\n                    <jats:italic>n<\/jats:italic>\n                    = 4) but the increase would be greater if catch-up was slower (5%;\n                    <jats:italic>n<\/jats:italic>\n                    = 70), and especially if there was no catch-up (49%;\n                    <jats:italic>n<\/jats:italic>\n                    = 750). Additional cancers for a single missed cohort were most commonly cervical (23% of the additional cases) and anal cancers (16%) in females and oropharyngeal cancers in males (20%). In the worst-case scenario of two birth cohorts missing vaccination, \u226462% more HPV-related cancers would be diagnosed (\n                    <jats:italic>n<\/jats:italic>\n                    = 1892). In conclusion, providing catch-up of missed HPV vaccines is conducted, short-term delays in vaccinating adolescents are unlikely to have substantial long-term effects on cancer.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.7554\/elife.85720","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,9,27]],"date-time":"2023-09-27T13:15:08Z","timestamp":1695820508000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.7554\/elife.85720","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["A modelled analysis of the impact of COVID-19-related disruptions to HPV vaccination"],"prefix":"10.7554","volume":"12","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9309-0492","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Louiza S","family":"Velentzis","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/0384j8v12","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW","place":["Sydney, Australia"]},{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/01ej9dk98","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne","place":["Victoria, Australia"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0401-2653","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Megan A","family":"Smith","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/0384j8v12","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW","place":["Sydney, Australia"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"James","family":"Killen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/0384j8v12","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW","place":["Sydney, Australia"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Julia ML","family":"Brotherton","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/01ej9dk98","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne","place":["Victoria, Australia"]},{"name":"Australian Centre for Prevention of Cervical Cancer","place":["Victoria, Australia"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Rebecca","family":"Guy","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/03r8z3t63","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"The Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales","place":["Sydney, Australia"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Karen","family":"Canfell","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/0384j8v12","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW","place":["Sydney, Australia"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"4374","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,13]]},"reference":[{"key":"bib1","article-title":"National Immunisation Program Schedule: Government of Australia","author":"Australian Government Department of Health and Aged Care","year":"2022","unstructured":"Australian Government Department of Health and Aged Care. 2022. National Immunisation Program Schedule: Government of Australia. https:\/\/www.health.gov.au\/topics\/immunisation\/immunisation-information-for-health-professionals\/catch-up-immunisations [Accessed August 5, 2022]."},{"key":"bib2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e8","DOI":"10.1016\/S2468-2667(16)30001-9","article-title":"Population-level impact, herd immunity, and elimination after human papillomavirus vaccination: a systematic review and meta-analysis of predictions from transmission-dynamic models","volume":"1","author":"Brisson","year":"2016","journal-title":"The Lancet. Public Health"},{"key":"bib3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"575","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(20)30068-4","article-title":"Impact of HPV vaccination and cervical screening on cervical cancer elimination: a comparative modelling analysis in 78 low-income and lower-middle-income countries","volume":"395","author":"Brisson","year":"2020","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"bib4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"591","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(20)30157-4","article-title":"Mortality impact of achieving WHO cervical cancer elimination targets: a comparative modelling analysis in 78 low-income and lower-middle-income countries","volume":"395","author":"Canfell","year":"2020","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"bib5","article-title":"State of Vaccine Confidence in the European Union 2022","author":"de Figueiredo","year":"2022","unstructured":"de Figueiredo A, Eagan RL, Hendrickx G, Karafillakis E, van Damme P, Larson HJ. 2022. State of Vaccine Confidence in the European Union 2022. https:\/\/www.vaccineconfidence.org\/our-work\/reports\/state-of-vaccine-confidence-in-eu-2022\/ [Accessed August 4, 2023]."},{"key":"bib6","first-page":"1","article-title":"Personal habits and indoor combustions","volume":"100","author":"IARC Working Group on the Evaluation of Carcinogenic Risks to Humans","year":"2012","journal-title":"IARC Monographs on the Evaluation of Carcinogenic Risks to Humans"},{"key":"bib7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1003534","article-title":"Human papillomavirus vaccination for adults aged 30 to 45 years in the United States: A cost-effectiveness analysis","volume":"18","author":"Kim","year":"2021","journal-title":"PLOS Medicine"},{"key":"bib8","article-title":"Annual Immunisation Coverage Report 2020","author":"National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance Australia","year":"2020","unstructured":"National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance Australia. 2020. Annual Immunisation Coverage Report 2020. https:\/\/www.ncirs.org.au\/sites\/default\/files\/2022-07\/NCIRS%20Annual%20Immunisation%20Coverage%20Report%202020.pdf [Accessed August 8, 2022]."},{"key":"bib9","article-title":"COVID-19 in schools and early childhood education and care services \u2013 the experience in NSW: 16 June to 31 July 2021","author":"National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance Australia","year":"2021","unstructured":"National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance Australia. 2021a. COVID-19 in schools and early childhood education and care services \u2013 the experience in NSW: 16 June to 31 July 2021. https:\/\/www.ncirs.org.au\/sites\/default\/files\/2021-09\/NCIRS%20NSW%20Schools%20COVID_Summary_8%20September%2021_Final.pdf [Accessed August 8, 2022]."},{"key":"bib10","article-title":"Annual Immunisation Coverage Report","author":"National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance Australia","year":"2021","unstructured":"National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance Australia. 2021b. Annual Immunisation Coverage Report. https:\/\/ncirs.org.au\/sites\/default\/files\/2022-12\/NCIRS%20Annual%20Immunisation%20Coverage%20Report%202021_FINAL.pdf [Accessed June 12, 2023]."},{"key":"bib11","article-title":"Chronology of primary and secondary school closures in Victoria due to COVID-19, 3 April 2021","author":"Parliament of Victoria","year":"2021","unstructured":"Parliament of Victoria. 2021. Chronology of primary and secondary school closures in Victoria due to COVID-19, 3 April 2021. https:\/\/www.parliament.vic.gov.au\/publications\/research-papers\/send\/36-research-papers\/14000-primary-and-secondary-school-closures-in-victoria-due-to-covid-19 [Accessed August 8, 2022]."},{"key":"bib12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2807\/1560-7917.ES.2018.23.41.1700737","article-title":"The impact of 10 years of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in Australia: what additional disease burden will a nonavalent vaccine prevent?","volume":"23","author":"Patel","year":"2018","journal-title":"Euro Surveillance"},{"key":"bib13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"840","DOI":"10.15585\/mmwr.mm7023a2","article-title":"Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Administration of Selected Routine Childhood and Adolescent Vaccinations - 10 U.S. Jurisdictions, March-September 2020","volume":"70","author":"Patel Murthy","year":"2021","journal-title":"MMWR. 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Global Strategy to Accelerate the Elimination of Cervical Cancer as a Public Health Problem. https:\/\/www.who.int\/publications\/i\/item\/9789240014107 [Accessed December 8, 2022]."},{"key":"bib18","article-title":"COVID-19 pandemic fuels largest continued backslide in vaccinations in three decades","author":"World Health Organization","year":"2022","unstructured":"World Health Organization. 2022. COVID-19 pandemic fuels largest continued backslide in vaccinations in three decades. https:\/\/www.who.int\/news\/item\/15-07-2022-covid-19-pandemic-fuels-largest-continued-backslide-in-vaccinations-in-three-decades [Accessed December 9, 2022]."},{"key":"bib19","article-title":"Global market study: HPV","author":"World Health Organization (WHO)","year":"2018","unstructured":"World Health Organization (WHO). 2018. Global market study: HPV. https:\/\/apps.who.int\/iris\/handle\/10665\/311275 [Accessed December 8, 2022]."}],"container-title":["eLife"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/cdn.elifesciences.org\/articles\/85720\/elife-85720-v1.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/cdn.elifesciences.org\/articles\/85720\/elife-85720-v1.xml","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/elifesciences.org\/articles\/85720","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,13]],"date-time":"2023-10-13T10:50:45Z","timestamp":1697194245000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/elifesciences.org\/articles\/85720"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,13]]},"references-count":19,"alternative-id":["10.7554\/eLife.85720"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.7554\/elife.85720","archive":["CLOCKSS"],"relation":{"has-preprint":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1101\/2023.03.07.23286911","asserted-by":"subject"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1101\/2023.03.07.23286911","asserted-by":"subject"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1101\/2023.03.07.23286911","asserted-by":"object"}],"has-review":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.7554\/eLife.85720.sa1","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.7554\/eLife.85720.sa0","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.7554\/eLife.85720.sa2","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["2050-084X"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2050-084X","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,13]]},"assertion":[{"value":"single anonymised","name":"peer_review_transparency","label":"Peer review transparency","group":{"name":"peer_review_taxonomy"}},{"value":"other reviewer(s), editor","name":"peer_review_interaction","label":"Peer review interaction","group":{"name":"peer_review_taxonomy"}},{"value":"review summaries, review reports, author\/editor communication, reviewer identities reviewer opt in, editor identities","name":"peer_review_published","label":"Peer review published","group":{"name":"peer_review_taxonomy"}},{"value":"open (sign in with ORCID iD required)","name":"post_publication_commenting","label":"Post publication commenting","group":{"name":"post_publication_commenting"}}],"article-number":"e85720"}}