{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,17]],"date-time":"2026-09-17T01:37:27Z","timestamp":1789609047676,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":90,"publisher":"PeerJ","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,3,21]],"date-time":"2022-03-21T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1647820800000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Operation Wallacea and the University of Salford"},{"name":"IUCN-SSC Crocodile Specialist Group"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    Estimates of animal abundance provide essential information for population ecological studies. However, the recording of individuals in the field can be challenging, and accurate estimates require analytical techniques which account for imperfect detection. Here, we quantify local abundances and overall population size of Morelet\u2019s crocodiles (\n                    <jats:italic>Crocodylus moreletii<\/jats:italic>\n                    ) in the region of Calakmul (Campeche, Mexico), comparing traditional approaches for crocodylians (Minimum Population Size\u2014MPS; King\u2019s Visible Fraction Method\u2014VFM) with binomial\n                    <jats:italic>N-<\/jats:italic>\n                    mixture models based on Poisson, zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and negative binomial (NB) distributions. A total of 191 nocturnal spotlight surveys were conducted across 40 representative locations (hydrologically highly dynamic aquatic sites locally known as aguadas) over a period of 3 years (2017\u20132019). Local abundance estimates revealed a median of 1 both through MPS (min\u2013max: 0\u201389; first and third quartiles, Q\n                    <jats:sub>1<\/jats:sub>\n                    \u2013Q\n                    <jats:sub>3<\/jats:sub>\n                    : 0\u20137) and VFM (0\u2013112; Q\n                    <jats:sub>1<\/jats:sub>\n                    \u2013Q\n                    <jats:sub>3<\/jats:sub>\n                    : 0\u20139) non-hatchling\n                    <jats:italic>C. moreletii<\/jats:italic>\n                    for each aguada, respectively. The ZIP based\n                    <jats:italic>N-<\/jats:italic>\n                    mixture approach shown overall superior confidence over Poisson and NB, and revealed a median of 6 \u00b1 3 individuals (min = 0; max = 120 \u00b1 18; Q\n                    <jats:sub>1<\/jats:sub>\n                    = 0; Q\n                    <jats:sub>3<\/jats:sub>\n                    = 18 \u00b1 4) jointly with higher detectabilities in drying aguadas with low and intermediate vegetation cover. Extrapolating these inferences across all waterbodies in the study area yielded an estimated ~10,000 (7,000\u201311,000)\n                    <jats:italic>C. moreletii<\/jats:italic>\n                    present, highlighting Calakmul as an important region for this species. Because covariates enable insights into population responses to local environmental conditions,\n                    <jats:italic>N-<\/jats:italic>\n                    mixture models applied to spotlight count data result in particularly insightful estimates of crocodylian detection and abundance.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.7717\/peerj.12906","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,3,21]],"date-time":"2022-03-21T04:56:06Z","timestamp":1647838566000},"page":"e12906","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":8,"title":["<i>N<\/i>\n                    -mixture models provide informative crocodile (\n                    <i>Crocodylus moreletii<\/i>\n                    ) abundance estimates in dynamic environments"],"prefix":"10.7717","volume":"10","author":[{"given":"Jos\u00e9 Ant\u00f3nio","family":"Lemos Bar\u00e3o-N\u00f3brega","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Operation Wallacea, Spilsby, Lincolnshire, United Kingdom"},{"name":"School of Science, Engineering and Environment, University of Salford, Salford, Greater Manchester, United Kingdom"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4330-0367","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Mauricio","family":"Gonz\u00e1lez-Jaur\u00e9gui","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Universidad Aut\u00f3noma de Campeche, Centro de Estudios de Desarrollo Sustentable y Aprovechamiento de la Vida Silvestre, Campeche, Campeche, Mexico"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0545-5664","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Robert","family":"Jehle","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Science, Engineering and Environment, University of Salford, Salford, Greater Manchester, United Kingdom"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"4443","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,3,21]]},"reference":[{"issue":"6","key":"10.7717\/peerj.12906\/ref-1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"716","DOI":"10.1109\/TAC.1974.1100705","article-title":"A new look at the statistical model identification","volume":"19","author":"Akaike","year":"1974","journal-title":"IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control"},{"key":"10.7717\/peerj.12906\/ref-2","first-page":"36743","article-title":"Notice of finding on a petition to delist the Morelet\u2019s crocodile from the list of threatened and endangered species","volume":"71","author":"\u00c1lvarez","year":"2005","journal-title":"Federal Register"},{"issue":"10","key":"10.7717\/peerj.12906\/ref-3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e02474","DOI":"10.1002\/ecs2.2474","article-title":"How to estimate population size in crocodylians? 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